25 year trends in cancer incidence and mortality among adults aged 35-69 years in the UK, 1993-2018: retrospective secondary analysis

25 year trends in cancer incidence and mortality among adults aged 35-69 years in the UK, 1993-2018: retrospective secondary analysis

Accepted: 19 January 2024 | Jon Shelton,1 Ewa Zotow,2 Lesley Smith,3 Shane A Johnson,1 Catherine S Thomson,4 Amar Ahmad,1 Lars Murdock,1 Diana Nagarwalla,5 David Forman5
This study examines trends in cancer incidence and mortality among adults aged 35-69 years in the UK from 1993 to 2018. The analysis uses secondary data from cancer registration, mortality, and national population sources. Key findings include: - **Incidence**: The number of cancer cases increased by 57% for men (from 55,014 to 86,297) and 48% for women (from 60,187 to 88,970). Prostate and breast cancers showed the most significant increases, while trends for other cancers were relatively stable. - **Mortality**: The number of cancer deaths decreased by 20% in men (from 32,878 to 26,322) and 17% in women (from 28,516 to 23,719). Age-standardized mortality rates for all cancers combined decreased by 37% in men and 33% in women. - **Trends**: The decline in mortality is attributed to successful cancer prevention, earlier detection through screening programs, and improved treatments. However, increased prevalence of non-smoking risk factors led to higher incidence rates for some specific cancers. - **Specific Cancers**: Concerns were raised about increasing incidence rates for liver, melanoma skin, oral, and kidney cancers. Uterine cancer incidence increased in women, possibly due to changes in hormone replacement therapy use and hysterectomy practices. - **Conclusion**: The study concludes that while cancer incidence did not show a generalized increase, there was a substantial decrease in cancer mortality over the 25-year period. The findings provide a benchmark for future trends, especially in light of the impact of COVID-19 on cancer incidence and outcomes.This study examines trends in cancer incidence and mortality among adults aged 35-69 years in the UK from 1993 to 2018. The analysis uses secondary data from cancer registration, mortality, and national population sources. Key findings include: - **Incidence**: The number of cancer cases increased by 57% for men (from 55,014 to 86,297) and 48% for women (from 60,187 to 88,970). Prostate and breast cancers showed the most significant increases, while trends for other cancers were relatively stable. - **Mortality**: The number of cancer deaths decreased by 20% in men (from 32,878 to 26,322) and 17% in women (from 28,516 to 23,719). Age-standardized mortality rates for all cancers combined decreased by 37% in men and 33% in women. - **Trends**: The decline in mortality is attributed to successful cancer prevention, earlier detection through screening programs, and improved treatments. However, increased prevalence of non-smoking risk factors led to higher incidence rates for some specific cancers. - **Specific Cancers**: Concerns were raised about increasing incidence rates for liver, melanoma skin, oral, and kidney cancers. Uterine cancer incidence increased in women, possibly due to changes in hormone replacement therapy use and hysterectomy practices. - **Conclusion**: The study concludes that while cancer incidence did not show a generalized increase, there was a substantial decrease in cancer mortality over the 25-year period. The findings provide a benchmark for future trends, especially in light of the impact of COVID-19 on cancer incidence and outcomes.
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