29 June 2024 | Ioannis Kountouris, Rasmus Bramstoft, Theis Madsen, Juan Gea-Bermúdez, Marie Münster & Dogan Keles
This study explores the pathways for establishing a unified European hydrogen infrastructure to support the rapid scale-up of hydrogen production, focusing on the emergence of hydrogen infrastructure connecting neighboring European nations through import and domestic production centers. The study uses a sector-coupled energy system model to assess four distinct hydrogen corridors connecting Western and Central European demands. Key findings include:
1. **Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure**: The study identifies the development of four distinct hydrogen corridors from Spain and France, Ireland and the United Kingdom, Italy, and Southeastern Europe. These corridors facilitate the transportation of large volumes of hydrogen.
2. **Economic Feasibility**: The economic feasibility of hydrogen production facilities is consistent on the continent's periphery, linking them to Western and Central Europe through new and repurposed infrastructure. Blue hydrogen acts as a transition fuel but has a high lock-in effect, increasing dependency on natural gas.
3. **Green Hydrogen and Imports**: Green hydrogen becomes the leading technology in the long term, but its deployment is slower compared to blue hydrogen. By 2050, green hydrogen imports are expected to account for a significant portion of the total hydrogen demand, but they are still less cost-competitive than domestic production.
4. **System Costs**: A system solely dependent on green hydrogen and imports (GH2E scenario) has 2.77% higher system costs compared to a system where both blue hydrogen and imports are possible options (H2E scenario). The self-sufficient green hydrogen scenario (SSH2E) has 3.36% higher costs compared to H2E.
5. **Technological and Market Dynamics**: Sensitivity analyses show that potential technological changes, such as reduced capital expenditures for electrolysis, inadequate carbon capture rates, limited CO2 storage projects, and rising costs associated with CO2 storage and transportation, can shift the favor towards green hydrogen.
6. **Hydrogen Infrastructure and Cross-Regional Trading**: Cross-regional hydrogen interconnectors can reduce the size and utilization of the hydrogen grid, especially in regions with seasonal storage facilities. The design of the future European hydrogen infrastructure is influenced by spatial uncertainty in the demand for hydrogen derivatives.
7. **Deployment of Renewable Energy**: The deployment of renewable energy generation, particularly solar PV and wind, is significantly impacted by the inclusion of blue hydrogen in the energy transition. Without blue hydrogen, additional renewable assets, especially solar PV, need to be deployed.
8. **Policy and Coordination**: Establishing a hydrogen economy requires balanced short and long-term production and infrastructure planning. Policy mechanisms should ensure equitable distribution of benefits from the future hydrogen backbone.
The study emphasizes the importance of rapidly scaling up electrolysis capacity, building hydrogen networks and storage facilities, deploying renewable electricity generation, and ensuring coherent coordination across European nations.This study explores the pathways for establishing a unified European hydrogen infrastructure to support the rapid scale-up of hydrogen production, focusing on the emergence of hydrogen infrastructure connecting neighboring European nations through import and domestic production centers. The study uses a sector-coupled energy system model to assess four distinct hydrogen corridors connecting Western and Central European demands. Key findings include:
1. **Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure**: The study identifies the development of four distinct hydrogen corridors from Spain and France, Ireland and the United Kingdom, Italy, and Southeastern Europe. These corridors facilitate the transportation of large volumes of hydrogen.
2. **Economic Feasibility**: The economic feasibility of hydrogen production facilities is consistent on the continent's periphery, linking them to Western and Central Europe through new and repurposed infrastructure. Blue hydrogen acts as a transition fuel but has a high lock-in effect, increasing dependency on natural gas.
3. **Green Hydrogen and Imports**: Green hydrogen becomes the leading technology in the long term, but its deployment is slower compared to blue hydrogen. By 2050, green hydrogen imports are expected to account for a significant portion of the total hydrogen demand, but they are still less cost-competitive than domestic production.
4. **System Costs**: A system solely dependent on green hydrogen and imports (GH2E scenario) has 2.77% higher system costs compared to a system where both blue hydrogen and imports are possible options (H2E scenario). The self-sufficient green hydrogen scenario (SSH2E) has 3.36% higher costs compared to H2E.
5. **Technological and Market Dynamics**: Sensitivity analyses show that potential technological changes, such as reduced capital expenditures for electrolysis, inadequate carbon capture rates, limited CO2 storage projects, and rising costs associated with CO2 storage and transportation, can shift the favor towards green hydrogen.
6. **Hydrogen Infrastructure and Cross-Regional Trading**: Cross-regional hydrogen interconnectors can reduce the size and utilization of the hydrogen grid, especially in regions with seasonal storage facilities. The design of the future European hydrogen infrastructure is influenced by spatial uncertainty in the demand for hydrogen derivatives.
7. **Deployment of Renewable Energy**: The deployment of renewable energy generation, particularly solar PV and wind, is significantly impacted by the inclusion of blue hydrogen in the energy transition. Without blue hydrogen, additional renewable assets, especially solar PV, need to be deployed.
8. **Policy and Coordination**: Establishing a hydrogen economy requires balanced short and long-term production and infrastructure planning. Policy mechanisms should ensure equitable distribution of benefits from the future hydrogen backbone.
The study emphasizes the importance of rapidly scaling up electrolysis capacity, building hydrogen networks and storage facilities, deploying renewable electricity generation, and ensuring coherent coordination across European nations.