Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems

Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems

20 May 2024 | Emmanuel Aramendia, Paul E. Brockway, Peter G. Taylor, Jonathan B. Norman, Matthew K. Heun, Zeke Marshall
This study re-evaluates the net energy implications of the energy transition by expanding the analysis from the final energy stage to the useful stage, which is crucial for understanding the true energy returns of fossil fuels and renewable energy systems. The authors estimate the useful-stage energy returns on investment (EROIs) for fossil fuels over the period 1971–2020, both globally and nationally, and break down these EROIs by end use. They find that fossil fuels' useful-stage EROIs are significantly lower than their final-stage EROIs (-3.51 vs -8.51), due to low final-to-useful efficiencies. The study also estimates the final-stage EROI for which electricity-yielding renewable energy systems would deliver the same net useful energy as fossil fuels, finding it to be approximately 4.61. Despite this, renewable energy systems, based on published estimations, have higher EROIs than the determined EROI equivalent, even considering the effects of intermittency under various energy transition scenarios. These findings suggest that the energy transition can occur without a decline in net useful energy, challenging the view that renewable energy systems cannot replace fossil fuels without significant energy penalties. The study highlights the importance of analyzing energy systems at the useful stage to better understand their net energy implications and the potential for renewable energy to support decent living standards.This study re-evaluates the net energy implications of the energy transition by expanding the analysis from the final energy stage to the useful stage, which is crucial for understanding the true energy returns of fossil fuels and renewable energy systems. The authors estimate the useful-stage energy returns on investment (EROIs) for fossil fuels over the period 1971–2020, both globally and nationally, and break down these EROIs by end use. They find that fossil fuels' useful-stage EROIs are significantly lower than their final-stage EROIs (-3.51 vs -8.51), due to low final-to-useful efficiencies. The study also estimates the final-stage EROI for which electricity-yielding renewable energy systems would deliver the same net useful energy as fossil fuels, finding it to be approximately 4.61. Despite this, renewable energy systems, based on published estimations, have higher EROIs than the determined EROI equivalent, even considering the effects of intermittency under various energy transition scenarios. These findings suggest that the energy transition can occur without a decline in net useful energy, challenging the view that renewable energy systems cannot replace fossil fuels without significant energy penalties. The study highlights the importance of analyzing energy systems at the useful stage to better understand their net energy implications and the potential for renewable energy to support decent living standards.
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