Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation

Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation

February 2024 | James S. Gerber, Deepak K. Ray, David Makowski, Ethan E. Butler, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Paul C. West, Justin A. Johnson, Stephen Polasky, Leah H. Samberg, Stefan Siebert & Lindsey Sloat
This study analyzes global spatially explicit yield gap trends for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010, revealing regional patterns of yield growth, stagnation, and pressure. Yield gaps have widened in most areas for eight annual crops, while remaining static for sugar cane and oil palm. A three-category typology is introduced: 'steady growth' (60% of maize area), 'stalled floor' (where yield stagnates), and 'ceiling pressure' (where yield gaps close). Rice and wheat show significant 'ceiling pressure', with 84% and 56% of their areas, respectively, experiencing this trend. 'Ceiling pressure' correlates with future yield stagnation, signaling risks for countries currently benefiting from yield growth. The Green Revolution increased global crop production, but environmental costs have risen. Closing yield gaps is key to sustainable production and aligns with UN Sustainable Development Goals. Previous studies have focused on static yield gaps, but this study provides a dynamic analysis, showing that yield gaps have increased for most crops, with maize showing the largest increase. Yield gaps for rice and wheat have decreased in some areas, but remain significant. The study uses a quantile regression model to calculate attainable yields and yield gaps, incorporating biophysical variables and climate data. It finds that maize, soybean, and rapeseed have increasing yield gaps, while rice and wheat show less change. Yield gaps for maize are growing in 56% of areas and closing in 13%, with 3% trending toward closure by 2030. For rice, yield gaps are closing in 23% of areas, with 27% of 2000 production at risk of closure by 2030. The study highlights the importance of addressing 'ceiling pressure' to prevent future yield stagnation. It also identifies 'stalled floor' regions where actual yields stagnate despite increasing attainable yields. The findings suggest that investment in agricultural R&D and improved management practices is critical for future food security. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of yield gap trends, offering insights into regional and global food security challenges. The results emphasize the need for targeted interventions to address yield gaps and ensure sustainable agricultural production.This study analyzes global spatially explicit yield gap trends for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010, revealing regional patterns of yield growth, stagnation, and pressure. Yield gaps have widened in most areas for eight annual crops, while remaining static for sugar cane and oil palm. A three-category typology is introduced: 'steady growth' (60% of maize area), 'stalled floor' (where yield stagnates), and 'ceiling pressure' (where yield gaps close). Rice and wheat show significant 'ceiling pressure', with 84% and 56% of their areas, respectively, experiencing this trend. 'Ceiling pressure' correlates with future yield stagnation, signaling risks for countries currently benefiting from yield growth. The Green Revolution increased global crop production, but environmental costs have risen. Closing yield gaps is key to sustainable production and aligns with UN Sustainable Development Goals. Previous studies have focused on static yield gaps, but this study provides a dynamic analysis, showing that yield gaps have increased for most crops, with maize showing the largest increase. Yield gaps for rice and wheat have decreased in some areas, but remain significant. The study uses a quantile regression model to calculate attainable yields and yield gaps, incorporating biophysical variables and climate data. It finds that maize, soybean, and rapeseed have increasing yield gaps, while rice and wheat show less change. Yield gaps for maize are growing in 56% of areas and closing in 13%, with 3% trending toward closure by 2030. For rice, yield gaps are closing in 23% of areas, with 27% of 2000 production at risk of closure by 2030. The study highlights the importance of addressing 'ceiling pressure' to prevent future yield stagnation. It also identifies 'stalled floor' regions where actual yields stagnate despite increasing attainable yields. The findings suggest that investment in agricultural R&D and improved management practices is critical for future food security. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of yield gap trends, offering insights into regional and global food security challenges. The results emphasize the need for targeted interventions to address yield gaps and ensure sustainable agricultural production.
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