This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of current accounts for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. The analysis is based on a structural approach that highlights the roles of the fundamental macroeconomic determinants of saving and investment. Cross-section and panel regression techniques are used to characterize the properties of current account variation across countries and over time. The paper finds that current account balances are positively correlated with government budget balances and initial stocks of net foreign assets. Among developing countries, measures of financial deepening are positively associated with current account balances while indicators of openness to international trade are negatively correlated with current account balances.
The paper uses a variety of theoretical models to understand and interpret its results, but does not test any of these models or their predictions formally. The objective is mainly to provide an empirical, but not entirely atheoretical, characterization of current account determinants that could be helpful for determining the empirical relevance of and for constructing more formal theoretical models. The paper is related to a number of different strands of literature, including the determinants of saving for both industrial and developing countries, the macroeconomic determinants of investment in developing countries, and the determinants of current account dynamics.
The paper finds that government budget balances are positively related to current account balances, and that initial stocks of net foreign assets are also positively related to current account balances. The paper also finds that financial deepening is positively associated with current account balances in developing countries, while openness to international trade is negatively correlated with current account balances. The paper also finds that terms of trade volatility is positively associated with current account balances in developing countries, while average output growth is not significantly related to current account balances.
The paper also finds that the degree of openness of an economy is negatively related to its current account position, although there appears to be no association between these two variables among industrial countries; the result is driven largely by the developing countries. The paper also finds that capital controls do not appear to have played a significant role in current account determination (conditional on other variables examined here). The paper also finds that the results are robust to the inclusion of outliers and threshold effects. The paper also finds that the results are robust to the inclusion of time dummies and that the results are consistent with the stages of development hypothesis. The paper also finds that the results are consistent with the notion that current account balances are influenced by medium-term rather than short-term determinants of current account variation. The paper also finds that the results are consistent with the notion that current account balances are influenced by the structural and macroeconomic attributes of a country.This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of current accounts for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. The analysis is based on a structural approach that highlights the roles of the fundamental macroeconomic determinants of saving and investment. Cross-section and panel regression techniques are used to characterize the properties of current account variation across countries and over time. The paper finds that current account balances are positively correlated with government budget balances and initial stocks of net foreign assets. Among developing countries, measures of financial deepening are positively associated with current account balances while indicators of openness to international trade are negatively correlated with current account balances.
The paper uses a variety of theoretical models to understand and interpret its results, but does not test any of these models or their predictions formally. The objective is mainly to provide an empirical, but not entirely atheoretical, characterization of current account determinants that could be helpful for determining the empirical relevance of and for constructing more formal theoretical models. The paper is related to a number of different strands of literature, including the determinants of saving for both industrial and developing countries, the macroeconomic determinants of investment in developing countries, and the determinants of current account dynamics.
The paper finds that government budget balances are positively related to current account balances, and that initial stocks of net foreign assets are also positively related to current account balances. The paper also finds that financial deepening is positively associated with current account balances in developing countries, while openness to international trade is negatively correlated with current account balances. The paper also finds that terms of trade volatility is positively associated with current account balances in developing countries, while average output growth is not significantly related to current account balances.
The paper also finds that the degree of openness of an economy is negatively related to its current account position, although there appears to be no association between these two variables among industrial countries; the result is driven largely by the developing countries. The paper also finds that capital controls do not appear to have played a significant role in current account determination (conditional on other variables examined here). The paper also finds that the results are robust to the inclusion of outliers and threshold effects. The paper also finds that the results are robust to the inclusion of time dummies and that the results are consistent with the stages of development hypothesis. The paper also finds that the results are consistent with the notion that current account balances are influenced by medium-term rather than short-term determinants of current account variation. The paper also finds that the results are consistent with the notion that current account balances are influenced by the structural and macroeconomic attributes of a country.