Oil or geopolitical issues? : Quantitative rethinking of political instability in the Middle East and North Africa

Oil or geopolitical issues? : Quantitative rethinking of political instability in the Middle East and North Africa

24 February 2024 | Mitsuhisa Fukutomi
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is one of the most conflict-prone areas globally, influenced by its geopolitical position and oil production. This study examines the causes of political instability in the region, focusing on both external and internal factors. The analysis suggests that the colonial experience under British, French, and Italian rule, as well as the Cold War's strategic importance between the US and the Soviet Union, have significantly impacted the region's political stability. Additionally, the study highlights that the oil economy, high unemployment rates, and lack of democracy are critical explanatory variables for political instability. The United States' increased energy self-sufficiency through shale oil and gas has reduced its dependence on the Middle East for oil, but the region remains crucial for arms exports. The study also discusses the role of historical and ethnic tensions, as well as the impact of external factors like US foreign policy during the Cold War. The empirical analysis uses various data sources, including the Fragile States Index (FSI) and the Global Peace Index (GPI), to assess the region's political and economic conditions. The findings indicate that factors such as democracy, education, internet access, and unemployment rates significantly influence the region's stability. The study concludes by emphasizing the need for Middle Eastern countries to diversify their economies and improve governance to reduce political instability.The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is one of the most conflict-prone areas globally, influenced by its geopolitical position and oil production. This study examines the causes of political instability in the region, focusing on both external and internal factors. The analysis suggests that the colonial experience under British, French, and Italian rule, as well as the Cold War's strategic importance between the US and the Soviet Union, have significantly impacted the region's political stability. Additionally, the study highlights that the oil economy, high unemployment rates, and lack of democracy are critical explanatory variables for political instability. The United States' increased energy self-sufficiency through shale oil and gas has reduced its dependence on the Middle East for oil, but the region remains crucial for arms exports. The study also discusses the role of historical and ethnic tensions, as well as the impact of external factors like US foreign policy during the Cold War. The empirical analysis uses various data sources, including the Fragile States Index (FSI) and the Global Peace Index (GPI), to assess the region's political and economic conditions. The findings indicate that factors such as democracy, education, internet access, and unemployment rates significantly influence the region's stability. The study concludes by emphasizing the need for Middle Eastern countries to diversify their economies and improve governance to reduce political instability.
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