Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in meteorological and hydrological drought patterns and propagations influenced by climatic variability, LULC change, and human regulations

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in meteorological and hydrological drought patterns and propagations influenced by climatic variability, LULC change, and human regulations

2024 | Yunyun Li, Yi Huang, Yanchun Li, Hongxue Zhang, Jingjing Fan, Qian Deng, Xuemei Wang
This study investigates the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of meteorological and hydrological drought patterns and their propagation influenced by climatic variability, land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and human regulations. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is selected as a case study area, divided into six subzones based on climate characteristics. The research aims to quantify drought propagation intervals and assess the mechanisms influencing hydrological droughts. Meteorological droughts are characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and hydrological droughts are assessed through the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). Cross-correlation analysis identifies the lag time associated with the highest correlation as the drought propagation interval. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to simulate hydrological processes and quantify the impact of human regulations on hydrological drought characteristics and propagation. Key findings include: 1. Meteorological droughts were extremely severe across most YRB during the 1990s, with some mitigation in the 2000s due to increased precipitation. 2. Hydrological droughts and propagation times from meteorology to hydrology showed substantial spatiotemporal variability, with summer propagation times being shorter than other seasons. 3. Propagation times were shorter in arid regions with cropland or built-up land cover compared to grassland and woodland, while the reverse held for humid regions. 4. Human regulations, particularly reservoir operations, prolonged propagation times, likely due to their design to overcome water deficits. The study highlights the complex interplay between climate change, LULC changes, and human regulations in influencing drought dynamics and emphasizes the need for integrated management approaches to enhance drought forecasting and water resource management.This study investigates the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of meteorological and hydrological drought patterns and their propagation influenced by climatic variability, land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and human regulations. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is selected as a case study area, divided into six subzones based on climate characteristics. The research aims to quantify drought propagation intervals and assess the mechanisms influencing hydrological droughts. Meteorological droughts are characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and hydrological droughts are assessed through the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). Cross-correlation analysis identifies the lag time associated with the highest correlation as the drought propagation interval. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to simulate hydrological processes and quantify the impact of human regulations on hydrological drought characteristics and propagation. Key findings include: 1. Meteorological droughts were extremely severe across most YRB during the 1990s, with some mitigation in the 2000s due to increased precipitation. 2. Hydrological droughts and propagation times from meteorology to hydrology showed substantial spatiotemporal variability, with summer propagation times being shorter than other seasons. 3. Propagation times were shorter in arid regions with cropland or built-up land cover compared to grassland and woodland, while the reverse held for humid regions. 4. Human regulations, particularly reservoir operations, prolonged propagation times, likely due to their design to overcome water deficits. The study highlights the complex interplay between climate change, LULC changes, and human regulations in influencing drought dynamics and emphasizes the need for integrated management approaches to enhance drought forecasting and water resource management.
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