The study aimed to estimate the 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fractures in men and women based on age and bone mineral density (BMD) at the femoral neck. The risks were calculated using incidence data from patient records in Malmö, Sweden, and future mortality rates from Poisson models. Fracture probability was determined using the Swedish population and $T$-score cut-off values based on the NHANES III female population. The 10-year probability of any fracture increased with age and $T$-score, except for forearm fractures in men. For hip and spine fractures, the fracture probabilities for individuals with low BMD were similar between men and women. The study suggests that intervention thresholds should vary according to absolute probabilities rather than fixed $T$-scores. The results highlight the importance of considering age as an independent risk factor when assessing fracture risk.The study aimed to estimate the 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fractures in men and women based on age and bone mineral density (BMD) at the femoral neck. The risks were calculated using incidence data from patient records in Malmö, Sweden, and future mortality rates from Poisson models. Fracture probability was determined using the Swedish population and $T$-score cut-off values based on the NHANES III female population. The 10-year probability of any fracture increased with age and $T$-score, except for forearm fractures in men. For hip and spine fractures, the fracture probabilities for individuals with low BMD were similar between men and women. The study suggests that intervention thresholds should vary according to absolute probabilities rather than fixed $T$-scores. The results highlight the importance of considering age as an independent risk factor when assessing fracture risk.