The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world

The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world

February 5, 2024 | Michael F. Wehner and James P. Kossin
The paper discusses the limitations of the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world, where global warming increases the thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). The scale, which categorizes damage based on wind intensity, is open-ended and does not extend beyond category 5 (70 m/s windspeed or greater), leading to a constant level of wind hazard conveyed regardless of intensity. The authors argue that this weakness becomes more problematic as more intense TCs are observed and projected to occur more frequently due to global warming. They introduce a hypothetical category 6 to reflect the increasing intensity of the most intense TCs and provide evidence from observations, modeling, and detection and attribution analyses to support their case. The paper highlights that several recent storms have already exceeded the hypothetical category 6 wind speed threshold, and climate model simulations project even more frequent and intense category 6 storms in the future. The authors conclude that the current scale underestimates the risk of wind hazards from the most intense TCs and suggest that adding a category 6 could raise awareness about the increased risk due to global warming.The paper discusses the limitations of the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world, where global warming increases the thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). The scale, which categorizes damage based on wind intensity, is open-ended and does not extend beyond category 5 (70 m/s windspeed or greater), leading to a constant level of wind hazard conveyed regardless of intensity. The authors argue that this weakness becomes more problematic as more intense TCs are observed and projected to occur more frequently due to global warming. They introduce a hypothetical category 6 to reflect the increasing intensity of the most intense TCs and provide evidence from observations, modeling, and detection and attribution analyses to support their case. The paper highlights that several recent storms have already exceeded the hypothetical category 6 wind speed threshold, and climate model simulations project even more frequent and intense category 6 storms in the future. The authors conclude that the current scale underestimates the risk of wind hazards from the most intense TCs and suggest that adding a category 6 could raise awareness about the increased risk due to global warming.
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