Winter demand falls as fuel bills rise: Understanding the energy impacts of the cost-of-living crisis on British households

Winter demand falls as fuel bills rise: Understanding the energy impacts of the cost-of-living crisis on British households

2024 | Ellen Zapata-Webborn, Clare Hamner, Tadj Oreszczyn, Gesche Huebner, Eoghan McKenna, Jessica Few, Simon Elam, Martin Pullinger, Callum Cheshire, Dominic Friel, Harry Masters, Alex Whittaker
This study examines the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on British households' energy consumption and bills during the winter of 2022/23. Using XGBoost counterfactual models trained on historical data from 5594 households, the research analyzes electricity and gas consumption from October 2022 to March 2023. Survey data collected in early 2023 is used to investigate the correlation between consumption reduction and energy-saving actions, household characteristics, and indicators of underheating and fuel poverty. Key findings include: - Electricity consumption was 8.4% lower, and gas consumption was 10.8% lower than the previous winter, saving consumers around £29/month. - Despite these savings and government subsidies, energy bills were still around £34/month higher than the previous winter. - Price elasticity for electricity and gas consumption was -0.10 and -0.07, respectively. - Greatest consumption reduction was associated with significant changes in heating practices, such as reducing heating hours and turning down thermostats. - There is evidence of greater fuel poverty and underheating among those who reduced energy consumption the most. The study presents novel methods for analyzing energy savings using smart meter data and provides insights into short-term price elasticity and the impact of behavior change on energy consumption.This study examines the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on British households' energy consumption and bills during the winter of 2022/23. Using XGBoost counterfactual models trained on historical data from 5594 households, the research analyzes electricity and gas consumption from October 2022 to March 2023. Survey data collected in early 2023 is used to investigate the correlation between consumption reduction and energy-saving actions, household characteristics, and indicators of underheating and fuel poverty. Key findings include: - Electricity consumption was 8.4% lower, and gas consumption was 10.8% lower than the previous winter, saving consumers around £29/month. - Despite these savings and government subsidies, energy bills were still around £34/month higher than the previous winter. - Price elasticity for electricity and gas consumption was -0.10 and -0.07, respectively. - Greatest consumption reduction was associated with significant changes in heating practices, such as reducing heating hours and turning down thermostats. - There is evidence of greater fuel poverty and underheating among those who reduced energy consumption the most. The study presents novel methods for analyzing energy savings using smart meter data and provides insights into short-term price elasticity and the impact of behavior change on energy consumption.
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