The Loess Plateau, a semi-humid and semi-arid region in China, has experienced significant vegetation changes and climate warming over the past few decades. The study examines the sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau, which is crucial for the sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin. Key findings include: 1. **Climate Change**: The temperature on the Loess Plateau has risen by 0.27 °C per decade over the past 50 years, more than double the global average. This warming is expected to continue, leading to increased drought episodes and soil erosion. 2. **Vegetation Changes**: Historical records show that vegetation cover was around 53% from the Xia Dynasty to the Spring and Autumn and Warring States period. Over the past 70 years, vegetation cover has increased to about 65% by 2021. However, this cover is approaching the sustainable threshold of 53-65%. 3. **Future Projections**: Using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) under different emission scenarios (low, medium, high), the study forecasts that vegetation cover will decrease to 64.67%, 62.70%, and 61.47% in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. 4. **Management Strategies**: The study recommends that further expansion of vegetation may be ecologically counterproductive, especially in the southeast. Instead, returning forestland to grassland and planting herbaceous plants with shallow, dense, and fibrous roots on hillsides could be more effective in reducing erosion. Additionally, enhancing water management is crucial to sustain agricultural productivity in the region. 5. **Conclusion**: The study emphasizes the importance of adapting vegetation management strategies to climate change to ensure the sustainability of the Loess Plateau and the Yellow River Basin. The sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau is estimated to be 53-65%, and further research is needed to develop proactive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change.The Loess Plateau, a semi-humid and semi-arid region in China, has experienced significant vegetation changes and climate warming over the past few decades. The study examines the sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau, which is crucial for the sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin. Key findings include: 1. **Climate Change**: The temperature on the Loess Plateau has risen by 0.27 °C per decade over the past 50 years, more than double the global average. This warming is expected to continue, leading to increased drought episodes and soil erosion. 2. **Vegetation Changes**: Historical records show that vegetation cover was around 53% from the Xia Dynasty to the Spring and Autumn and Warring States period. Over the past 70 years, vegetation cover has increased to about 65% by 2021. However, this cover is approaching the sustainable threshold of 53-65%. 3. **Future Projections**: Using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) under different emission scenarios (low, medium, high), the study forecasts that vegetation cover will decrease to 64.67%, 62.70%, and 61.47% in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. 4. **Management Strategies**: The study recommends that further expansion of vegetation may be ecologically counterproductive, especially in the southeast. Instead, returning forestland to grassland and planting herbaceous plants with shallow, dense, and fibrous roots on hillsides could be more effective in reducing erosion. Additionally, enhancing water management is crucial to sustain agricultural productivity in the region. 5. **Conclusion**: The study emphasizes the importance of adapting vegetation management strategies to climate change to ensure the sustainability of the Loess Plateau and the Yellow River Basin. The sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau is estimated to be 53-65%, and further research is needed to develop proactive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change.