A study on the Loess Plateau in China reveals that vegetation cover has increased from 53% in the historical period to 65% by 2021, reaching the sustainable threshold for ecological stability. The Loess Plateau, covering 640,000 km², is a semi-arid region with severe soil erosion. Over the past 50 years, the temperature has risen by 0.27°C per decade, 30% higher than the national average. The study used species distribution models (SDMs) under low, medium, and high emission scenarios to forecast vegetation cover for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, predicting values of 64.67%, 62.70%, and 61.47%, respectively. The threshold for sustainable vegetation cover is estimated to be between 53% and 65%. Once vegetation cover exceeds this threshold, the risk of ecosystem collapse increases. The study emphasizes the need for sustainable strategies, such as stopping the expansion of vegetation areas and optimizing vegetation structure, to ensure the ecological sustainability of the Yellow River Basin. The findings highlight the importance of managing vegetation changes in response to climate change to maintain ecological balance and prevent further degradation.A study on the Loess Plateau in China reveals that vegetation cover has increased from 53% in the historical period to 65% by 2021, reaching the sustainable threshold for ecological stability. The Loess Plateau, covering 640,000 km², is a semi-arid region with severe soil erosion. Over the past 50 years, the temperature has risen by 0.27°C per decade, 30% higher than the national average. The study used species distribution models (SDMs) under low, medium, and high emission scenarios to forecast vegetation cover for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, predicting values of 64.67%, 62.70%, and 61.47%, respectively. The threshold for sustainable vegetation cover is estimated to be between 53% and 65%. Once vegetation cover exceeds this threshold, the risk of ecosystem collapse increases. The study emphasizes the need for sustainable strategies, such as stopping the expansion of vegetation areas and optimizing vegetation structure, to ensure the ecological sustainability of the Yellow River Basin. The findings highlight the importance of managing vegetation changes in response to climate change to maintain ecological balance and prevent further degradation.