This paper presents a framework for categorizing uncertainties faced by firms in international business and outlines financial and strategic corporate risk management responses. It argues that current treatments of risk in international management literature focus on particular uncertainties, excluding other interrelated uncertainties. The paper defines risk as unpredictability in corporate outcome variables, consistent with strategic management research using performance variance measures. Uncertainty, in contrast, refers to the unpredictability of environmental or organizational variables that impact corporate performance. Uncertainty increases risk by reducing predictability.
A firm's strategy aligns the organization with its uncertain environment, determining exposure to environmental and organizational uncertainties. Exposure refers to the sensitivity of a firm's cash flows to changes in interrelated uncertain variables. A significant shortcoming in the risk and uncertainty literature is the emphasis on particular uncertainties rather than a multidimensional treatment. This particularist view isolates specific uncertainties, excluding other interrelated variables. Much of the international risk literature focuses on political or foreign exchange uncertainties, while finance and insurance literature emphasizes uncertainties for which hedging or insurance instruments can be developed.
The particularist approach has come under criticism, as interrelated uncertainties such as interest rates, foreign exchange rates, inflation, and relative prices are jointly relevant for managing macroeconomic risk. Decisions such as purchasing fire insurance, hedging foreign exchange risk, or determining leverage are often made independently, despite their interrelated effects on total firm risk. The paper proposes a framework for integrated risk management that considers the multidimensional nature of uncertainties and their interrelationships.This paper presents a framework for categorizing uncertainties faced by firms in international business and outlines financial and strategic corporate risk management responses. It argues that current treatments of risk in international management literature focus on particular uncertainties, excluding other interrelated uncertainties. The paper defines risk as unpredictability in corporate outcome variables, consistent with strategic management research using performance variance measures. Uncertainty, in contrast, refers to the unpredictability of environmental or organizational variables that impact corporate performance. Uncertainty increases risk by reducing predictability.
A firm's strategy aligns the organization with its uncertain environment, determining exposure to environmental and organizational uncertainties. Exposure refers to the sensitivity of a firm's cash flows to changes in interrelated uncertain variables. A significant shortcoming in the risk and uncertainty literature is the emphasis on particular uncertainties rather than a multidimensional treatment. This particularist view isolates specific uncertainties, excluding other interrelated variables. Much of the international risk literature focuses on political or foreign exchange uncertainties, while finance and insurance literature emphasizes uncertainties for which hedging or insurance instruments can be developed.
The particularist approach has come under criticism, as interrelated uncertainties such as interest rates, foreign exchange rates, inflation, and relative prices are jointly relevant for managing macroeconomic risk. Decisions such as purchasing fire insurance, hedging foreign exchange risk, or determining leverage are often made independently, despite their interrelated effects on total firm risk. The paper proposes a framework for integrated risk management that considers the multidimensional nature of uncertainties and their interrelationships.