A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

August 2011 | Volume 6 | Issue 8 | e23777 | Karen C. Seto, Michail Fragkias, Burak Güneralp, Michael K. Reilly
This meta-analysis examines the global expansion of urban land from 1970 to 2000, using 326 studies that utilized remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. The study finds a significant increase in urban land area, totaling 58,000 km², with India, China, and Africa experiencing the highest rates of expansion. Urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, indicating that urban growth is becoming more expansive. GDP per capita growth drives urban expansion in China but has a moderate impact in India and Africa, where population growth is a primary driver. In high-income countries, urban land expansion is slower and more related to GDP growth, while in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion. The analysis also highlights that urban expansion is not limited to coastal areas or protected regions, suggesting that urban growth is influenced by a variety of factors, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policies, and transport costs. The study forecasts that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase by between 430,000 km² and 12,568,000 km², with an estimated increase of 1,527,000 km². The findings underscore the need for comprehensive strategies to address the impacts of urban expansion on climate change, biodiversity, and human well-being.This meta-analysis examines the global expansion of urban land from 1970 to 2000, using 326 studies that utilized remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. The study finds a significant increase in urban land area, totaling 58,000 km², with India, China, and Africa experiencing the highest rates of expansion. Urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, indicating that urban growth is becoming more expansive. GDP per capita growth drives urban expansion in China but has a moderate impact in India and Africa, where population growth is a primary driver. In high-income countries, urban land expansion is slower and more related to GDP growth, while in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion. The analysis also highlights that urban expansion is not limited to coastal areas or protected regions, suggesting that urban growth is influenced by a variety of factors, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policies, and transport costs. The study forecasts that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase by between 430,000 km² and 12,568,000 km², with an estimated increase of 1,527,000 km². The findings underscore the need for comprehensive strategies to address the impacts of urban expansion on climate change, biodiversity, and human well-being.
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