A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

August 18, 2011 | Karen C. Seto, Michail Fragkias, Burak Güneralp, Michael K. Reilly
A meta-analysis of 326 studies using remotely sensed images reveals a global increase in urban land area from 58,000 km² between 1970 and 2000. India, China, and Africa experienced the highest rates of urban expansion, while North America saw the largest total change. Urban expansion rates generally exceed or match urban population growth rates, indicating urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. In China, GDP per capita growth drives about half of urban land expansion, while in India and Africa, urban population growth is the main driver. In high-income countries, urban expansion is slower and more related to GDP growth, but in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than in Europe. Much of the variation in urban expansion is not captured by population, GDP, or other variables, suggesting factors like international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and transport costs are important. Using SRES scenarios, the study forecasts global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km² and 12,568,000 km² by 2030, with an estimate of 1,527,000 km² more likely. Urban expansion is faster in low-elevation coastal zones and near protected areas, highlighting risks from climate change and challenges for conservation. The study shows urban land expansion is driven by factors beyond population and economic growth, including land use policies, transportation costs, and foreign investment. Despite limitations, the meta-analysis highlights trends in urban expansion with implications for climate change adaptation, biodiversity, and human well-being. The results indicate urban areas are expanding faster than population growth, and non-demographic factors significantly influence urban land expansion. The study underscores the need for comprehensive strategies to address the impacts of urban expansion on climate change and biodiversity.A meta-analysis of 326 studies using remotely sensed images reveals a global increase in urban land area from 58,000 km² between 1970 and 2000. India, China, and Africa experienced the highest rates of urban expansion, while North America saw the largest total change. Urban expansion rates generally exceed or match urban population growth rates, indicating urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. In China, GDP per capita growth drives about half of urban land expansion, while in India and Africa, urban population growth is the main driver. In high-income countries, urban expansion is slower and more related to GDP growth, but in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than in Europe. Much of the variation in urban expansion is not captured by population, GDP, or other variables, suggesting factors like international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and transport costs are important. Using SRES scenarios, the study forecasts global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km² and 12,568,000 km² by 2030, with an estimate of 1,527,000 km² more likely. Urban expansion is faster in low-elevation coastal zones and near protected areas, highlighting risks from climate change and challenges for conservation. The study shows urban land expansion is driven by factors beyond population and economic growth, including land use policies, transportation costs, and foreign investment. Despite limitations, the meta-analysis highlights trends in urban expansion with implications for climate change adaptation, biodiversity, and human well-being. The results indicate urban areas are expanding faster than population growth, and non-demographic factors significantly influence urban land expansion. The study underscores the need for comprehensive strategies to address the impacts of urban expansion on climate change and biodiversity.
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