A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

JUNE 1973 | ALLAN H. MURPHY
The paper introduces a new vector partition of the probability, or Brier, score (PS) and compares it with the original partition. The new partition consists of three terms: 1) a measure of the uncertainty inherent in the events or states on the occasions of concern (the PS for the sample relative frequencies); 2) a measure of the reliability of the forecasts; and 3) a new measure of the resolution of the forecasts. These measures are not linearly related to the measures in the original partition. The paper illustrates the differences between the two partitions using sample collections of probability forecasts and compares them in terms of the attributes of the forecasts, geometric interpretation, and their use in evaluating probability forecasts. The results indicate that the new partition offers certain advantages over the original partition. The new partition is more appropriate for evaluating probability forecasts, particularly in the context of comparing forecasters and forecast offices.The paper introduces a new vector partition of the probability, or Brier, score (PS) and compares it with the original partition. The new partition consists of three terms: 1) a measure of the uncertainty inherent in the events or states on the occasions of concern (the PS for the sample relative frequencies); 2) a measure of the reliability of the forecasts; and 3) a new measure of the resolution of the forecasts. These measures are not linearly related to the measures in the original partition. The paper illustrates the differences between the two partitions using sample collections of probability forecasts and compares them in terms of the attributes of the forecasts, geometric interpretation, and their use in evaluating probability forecasts. The results indicate that the new partition offers certain advantages over the original partition. The new partition is more appropriate for evaluating probability forecasts, particularly in the context of comparing forecasters and forecast offices.
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