June 2011 | Viral V. Acharya, Itamar Drechsler, Philipp Schnabl
The paper "A Pyrrhic Victory? - Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk" by Viral V. Acharya, Itamar Drechsler, and Philipp Schnabl explores the intimate link between financial sector bailouts and sovereign credit risk. The authors argue that while bailouts can benefit the economy by alleviating under-investment in the financial sector, they can also have significant costs, particularly in terms of the sovereign's creditworthiness. They propose a theoretical model where the government can fund bailouts through increased taxation or dilution of existing government bondholders, both of which have negative consequences. Increased taxation reduces the non-financial sector's incentive to invest, while dilution of existing bondholders weakens the sovereign's credit rating. Empirical evidence from the Eurozone countries from 2007 to 2010 supports this two-way feedback mechanism, showing that bank bailouts were associated with an immediate widening of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spreads and a subsequent co-movement between bank and sovereign CDS spreads. The authors conclude that aggressive bailout packages that stabilize financial sectors in the short run may end up being a "Pyrrhic victory" due to the long-term costs to taxpayers.The paper "A Pyrrhic Victory? - Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk" by Viral V. Acharya, Itamar Drechsler, and Philipp Schnabl explores the intimate link between financial sector bailouts and sovereign credit risk. The authors argue that while bailouts can benefit the economy by alleviating under-investment in the financial sector, they can also have significant costs, particularly in terms of the sovereign's creditworthiness. They propose a theoretical model where the government can fund bailouts through increased taxation or dilution of existing government bondholders, both of which have negative consequences. Increased taxation reduces the non-financial sector's incentive to invest, while dilution of existing bondholders weakens the sovereign's credit rating. Empirical evidence from the Eurozone countries from 2007 to 2010 supports this two-way feedback mechanism, showing that bank bailouts were associated with an immediate widening of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spreads and a subsequent co-movement between bank and sovereign CDS spreads. The authors conclude that aggressive bailout packages that stabilize financial sectors in the short run may end up being a "Pyrrhic victory" due to the long-term costs to taxpayers.