A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years

A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years

8 March 2013 | Shaun A. Marcott, Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix
This study presents a 11,300-year temperature reconstruction based on 73 globally distributed records, revealing that the early Holocene was warmer, followed by a cooling through the middle to late Holocene, peaking in the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago. Current temperatures are warmer than 75% of the Holocene history but have not yet exceeded the peak interglacial values. Climate models project that by 2100, temperatures will exceed the full Holocene distribution under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The reconstruction uses paleotemperature proxies with varying resolutions and accounts for uncertainties through a Monte Carlo-based randomization scheme. It shows that the Holocene temperature stack adequately represents centennial- and millennial-scale variability, with significant differences in regional patterns, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The study confirms that past temperature reconstructions capture long-term variability, despite their short time span. The reconstruction highlights a warming trend from the early Holocene to a temperature plateau, followed by a long-term cooling. Regional temperature anomalies show strong correlations with precipitation records, indicating that greater warmth is associated with greater wetness. The study also discusses the role of orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, and ocean circulation in shaping Holocene climate. The results indicate that global temperatures in the 2000–2009 decade have not exceeded the warmest temperatures of the early Holocene but are warmer than 72% of the Holocene distribution. In contrast, the early 20th century was cooler than 95% of the Holocene distribution. The study concludes that global temperatures have risen from near the coldest to the warmest levels of the Holocene in the past century, reversing the long-term cooling trend that began 5000 years ago. Climate models project that by 2100, temperatures will likely exceed the full distribution of Holocene warmth, with global average temperatures expected to be 5 to 12 standard deviations above the Holocene mean for the A1B scenario. The study emphasizes the importance of improving chronologic constraints and proxy calibration to better understand Holocene temperature variability.This study presents a 11,300-year temperature reconstruction based on 73 globally distributed records, revealing that the early Holocene was warmer, followed by a cooling through the middle to late Holocene, peaking in the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago. Current temperatures are warmer than 75% of the Holocene history but have not yet exceeded the peak interglacial values. Climate models project that by 2100, temperatures will exceed the full Holocene distribution under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The reconstruction uses paleotemperature proxies with varying resolutions and accounts for uncertainties through a Monte Carlo-based randomization scheme. It shows that the Holocene temperature stack adequately represents centennial- and millennial-scale variability, with significant differences in regional patterns, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The study confirms that past temperature reconstructions capture long-term variability, despite their short time span. The reconstruction highlights a warming trend from the early Holocene to a temperature plateau, followed by a long-term cooling. Regional temperature anomalies show strong correlations with precipitation records, indicating that greater warmth is associated with greater wetness. The study also discusses the role of orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, and ocean circulation in shaping Holocene climate. The results indicate that global temperatures in the 2000–2009 decade have not exceeded the warmest temperatures of the early Holocene but are warmer than 72% of the Holocene distribution. In contrast, the early 20th century was cooler than 95% of the Holocene distribution. The study concludes that global temperatures have risen from near the coldest to the warmest levels of the Holocene in the past century, reversing the long-term cooling trend that began 5000 years ago. Climate models project that by 2100, temperatures will likely exceed the full distribution of Holocene warmth, with global average temperatures expected to be 5 to 12 standard deviations above the Holocene mean for the A1B scenario. The study emphasizes the importance of improving chronologic constraints and proxy calibration to better understand Holocene temperature variability.
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