8 MARCH 2013 VOL 339 | Shaun A. Marcott, Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix
This study reconstructs regional and global temperature anomalies over the past 11,300 years using 73 globally distributed records. The early Holocene (10,000 to 5,000 years ago) was warmer, followed by a cooling trend of about 0.7°C through the middle to late Holocene, culminating in the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. Current global temperatures of the past decade have not exceeded peak interglacial values but are warmer than during 75% of the Holocene. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The reconstruction highlights the importance of distinguishing anthropogenic influences from natural variability in climate change. The study also discusses the limitations and strengths of the proxy data used, the methods for averaging and infilling data gaps, and the implications for understanding long-term climate variability.This study reconstructs regional and global temperature anomalies over the past 11,300 years using 73 globally distributed records. The early Holocene (10,000 to 5,000 years ago) was warmer, followed by a cooling trend of about 0.7°C through the middle to late Holocene, culminating in the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. Current global temperatures of the past decade have not exceeded peak interglacial values but are warmer than during 75% of the Holocene. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The reconstruction highlights the importance of distinguishing anthropogenic influences from natural variability in climate change. The study also discusses the limitations and strengths of the proxy data used, the methods for averaging and infilling data gaps, and the implications for understanding long-term climate variability.