A Theory of Political Transitions

A Theory of Political Transitions

October 1999 | Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson
A Theory of Political Transitions by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson examines the dynamics of political transitions between democratic and nondemocratic regimes. The paper argues that inequality plays a crucial role in determining the stability of democracy. In nondemocratic societies, a rich elite controls political power, while the poor are excluded from political decision-making. However, social unrest or revolution can force the elite to democratize. Democracy may not consolidate because it is more redistributive than a nondemocratic regime, giving the elite an incentive to mount a coup. In highly unequal societies, democracy is less likely to consolidate and may oscillate between regimes or remain in a nondemocratic repressive regime. Intermediate levels of inequality are more likely to consolidate democracy and redistribute more than both very equal and very unequal countries. Asset redistribution, such as educational and land reform, can help consolidate both democratic and nondemocratic regimes. The paper also shows that repression by the elite can prevent democratization in very unequal societies. The analysis highlights the importance of inequality in shaping political stability and the role of redistribution in consolidating democracy. The paper concludes that low levels of inequality are more conducive to the consolidation of democracy, while high inequality increases political instability.A Theory of Political Transitions by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson examines the dynamics of political transitions between democratic and nondemocratic regimes. The paper argues that inequality plays a crucial role in determining the stability of democracy. In nondemocratic societies, a rich elite controls political power, while the poor are excluded from political decision-making. However, social unrest or revolution can force the elite to democratize. Democracy may not consolidate because it is more redistributive than a nondemocratic regime, giving the elite an incentive to mount a coup. In highly unequal societies, democracy is less likely to consolidate and may oscillate between regimes or remain in a nondemocratic repressive regime. Intermediate levels of inequality are more likely to consolidate democracy and redistribute more than both very equal and very unequal countries. Asset redistribution, such as educational and land reform, can help consolidate both democratic and nondemocratic regimes. The paper also shows that repression by the elite can prevent democratization in very unequal societies. The analysis highlights the importance of inequality in shaping political stability and the role of redistribution in consolidating democracy. The paper concludes that low levels of inequality are more conducive to the consolidation of democracy, while high inequality increases political instability.
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