A World Malaria Map: Plasmodium falciparum Endemicity in 2007

A World Malaria Map: Plasmodium falciparum Endemicity in 2007

March 24, 2009 | Simon I. Hay, Carlos A. Guerra, Peter W. Gething, Anand P. Patil, Andrew J. Tatem, Abdisalan M. Noor, Caroline W. Kabaria, Bui H. Manh, Iqbal R. F. Elyazar, Simon Brooker, David L. Smith, Rana A. Mooyed, Robert W. Snow
A world malaria map was created to show the distribution of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007. The study used 8,938 parasite rate (PfPR) surveys, of which 7,953 passed data quality tests. A model-based geostatistical approach was used to generate a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within defined spatial limits. The map was validated using a hold-out procedure and showed high accuracy in predicting PfPR values and endemicity classes. The results indicated that most of the global population at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria (1.38 billion) lived in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and the Americas. The Americas had the lowest endemicity, while CSE Asia had a mix of low, intermediate, and high endemicity. Africa+ had high endemicity in parts of West and Central Africa. The map provides a detailed understanding of malaria risk and is the first of a series that will help monitor and evaluate malaria control efforts. The study highlights the need for targeted interventions in Africa and other regions with high endemicity. The map is based on a comprehensive database of PfPR surveys and incorporates age-standardization and urban adjustment to improve accuracy. The results show that malaria transmission is widespread in Africa, but low in the Americas. The study also emphasizes the importance of considering uncertainty in predictions and the need for further research to improve malaria control strategies.A world malaria map was created to show the distribution of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007. The study used 8,938 parasite rate (PfPR) surveys, of which 7,953 passed data quality tests. A model-based geostatistical approach was used to generate a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within defined spatial limits. The map was validated using a hold-out procedure and showed high accuracy in predicting PfPR values and endemicity classes. The results indicated that most of the global population at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria (1.38 billion) lived in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and the Americas. The Americas had the lowest endemicity, while CSE Asia had a mix of low, intermediate, and high endemicity. Africa+ had high endemicity in parts of West and Central Africa. The map provides a detailed understanding of malaria risk and is the first of a series that will help monitor and evaluate malaria control efforts. The study highlights the need for targeted interventions in Africa and other regions with high endemicity. The map is based on a comprehensive database of PfPR surveys and incorporates age-standardization and urban adjustment to improve accuracy. The results show that malaria transmission is widespread in Africa, but low in the Americas. The study also emphasizes the importance of considering uncertainty in predictions and the need for further research to improve malaria control strategies.
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