March 2009 | Volume 6 | Issue 3 | e1000048 | Simon I. Hay,1,2*, Carlos A. Guerra,1,2, Peter W. Gething,2,3, Anand P. Patil,2, Andrew J. Tatem,1,2,4,5, Abdisalan M. Noor,1,6, Caroline W. Kabaria,1, Bui H. Manh,7, Iqbal R. F. Elyazar,8, Simon Brooker,1,9, David L. Smith,5,10, Rana A. Moye,11, Robert W. Snow,1,6
This paper presents a detailed, contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007, the first such map in 40 years. The authors used a comprehensive database of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PPRR) surveys to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. A model-based geostatistical procedure, implemented within a Bayesian framework, was used to evaluate the uncertainty of predictions. The results show that 1.38 billion people are at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, with the majority (0.69 billion) in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and 0.04 billion in the Americas. The Americas have the lowest endemicity, with 88% of the population in the lowest endemicity class (PPRR2-10 ≤ 5%). CSE Asia also has low endemicity, with 11% in the intermediate class (PPRR2-10 ≥ 5 to < 40%) and 1% in the high class (PPRR2-10 ≥ 40%). High endemicity is widespread in Africa+, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. The study concludes that there are significant opportunities for malaria control in Africa and elimination elsewhere, and that the 2007 global P. falciparum malaria endemicity map will be a valuable tool for monitoring and evaluating the progress of malaria interventions.This paper presents a detailed, contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007, the first such map in 40 years. The authors used a comprehensive database of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PPRR) surveys to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. A model-based geostatistical procedure, implemented within a Bayesian framework, was used to evaluate the uncertainty of predictions. The results show that 1.38 billion people are at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, with the majority (0.69 billion) in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and 0.04 billion in the Americas. The Americas have the lowest endemicity, with 88% of the population in the lowest endemicity class (PPRR2-10 ≤ 5%). CSE Asia also has low endemicity, with 11% in the intermediate class (PPRR2-10 ≥ 5 to < 40%) and 1% in the high class (PPRR2-10 ≥ 40%). High endemicity is widespread in Africa+, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. The study concludes that there are significant opportunities for malaria control in Africa and elimination elsewhere, and that the 2007 global P. falciparum malaria endemicity map will be a valuable tool for monitoring and evaluating the progress of malaria interventions.