Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics

Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics

VOL 26 | AUGUST 2020 | 1205-1211 | Nicholas G. Davies, Petra Klepac, Yang Liu, Kiesha Prem, Mark Jit, CMMID COVID-19 working group and Rosalind M. Eggo
The study examines the age-dependent effects on the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. It finds that children have lower susceptibility to infection and a lower probability of showing clinical symptoms compared to adults. The estimated susceptibility to infection in individuals under 20 years of age is approximately half that of adults over 20 years. Clinical symptoms manifest in 21% of infections in 10- to 19-year-olds, rising to 69% in people over 70 years. Interventions aimed at children may have a relatively small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, especially if subclinical infections are less transmissible. The age-specific clinical fraction and susceptibility estimates have implications for the expected global burden of COVID-19, with younger populations expected to have fewer clinical cases per capita. School closures can reduce transmission, but their effectiveness depends on the fraction of the population that are children and the infectiousness of subclinical infections. The study also highlights the importance of understanding age-dependent factors in designing interventions and projecting the global burden of COVID-19.The study examines the age-dependent effects on the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. It finds that children have lower susceptibility to infection and a lower probability of showing clinical symptoms compared to adults. The estimated susceptibility to infection in individuals under 20 years of age is approximately half that of adults over 20 years. Clinical symptoms manifest in 21% of infections in 10- to 19-year-olds, rising to 69% in people over 70 years. Interventions aimed at children may have a relatively small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, especially if subclinical infections are less transmissible. The age-specific clinical fraction and susceptibility estimates have implications for the expected global burden of COVID-19, with younger populations expected to have fewer clinical cases per capita. School closures can reduce transmission, but their effectiveness depends on the fraction of the population that are children and the infectiousness of subclinical infections. The study also highlights the importance of understanding age-dependent factors in designing interventions and projecting the global burden of COVID-19.
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