An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models

An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models

15 JULY 2006 | BRIAN J. SODEN, ISAAC M. HELD
The paper by Brian J. Soden and Isaac M. Held assesses climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models using a coordinated set of twenty-first-century climate change experiments. The study finds that water vapor provides the largest positive feedback, consistent with changes in water vapor mixing ratio at constant relative humidity. Clouds and surface albedo also exhibit positive feedbacks, while temperature response is the only stabilizing (negative) feedback. Large intermodel differences in lapse rate feedback are observed, linked to regional patterns of surface warming. The vertical changes in temperature and water vapor are tightly coupled, and intermodel differences in the sum of lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks are small. However, intermodel differences in cloud feedback are the largest source of uncertainty in current predictions of climate sensitivity. The methodology used to compute feedbacks is consistent and reliable, providing a basis for intermodel comparisons. The results confirm that water vapor provides the largest positive feedback and that clouds are the primary source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity predictions.The paper by Brian J. Soden and Isaac M. Held assesses climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models using a coordinated set of twenty-first-century climate change experiments. The study finds that water vapor provides the largest positive feedback, consistent with changes in water vapor mixing ratio at constant relative humidity. Clouds and surface albedo also exhibit positive feedbacks, while temperature response is the only stabilizing (negative) feedback. Large intermodel differences in lapse rate feedback are observed, linked to regional patterns of surface warming. The vertical changes in temperature and water vapor are tightly coupled, and intermodel differences in the sum of lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks are small. However, intermodel differences in cloud feedback are the largest source of uncertainty in current predictions of climate sensitivity. The methodology used to compute feedbacks is consistent and reliable, providing a basis for intermodel comparisons. The results confirm that water vapor provides the largest positive feedback and that clouds are the primary source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity predictions.
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[slides and audio] An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean%E2%80%93Atmosphere Models