This paper analyzes the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China, Italy, and France between January 22 and March 11, 2020. Using a simple susceptible-infected-recovered-deaths (SIRD) model, the study finds that the recovery rate is similar across the three countries, while the infection and death rates vary. The model predicts that the peak of the epidemic in Italy occurs around March 21, 2020, with approximately 15,000 confirmed infected individuals and 9,300 deaths, consistent with seasonal flu figures. However, since confirmed cases are estimated to be between 10-20% of the actual number of infected individuals, the apparent mortality rate in Italy is between 3-7%, higher than seasonal flu, while in China it is between 1-3%. The study also estimates that around 2000 ventilation units would be needed to handle the peak in Italy. Simulations of the effects of drastic containment measures show that a significant reduction in the infection rate can quench the epidemic peak, but this requires a rapid and drastic cutback in the infection rate. The analysis suggests that such measures are only feasible through a concerted and disciplined effort by the population. The results are based on data from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. The study highlights the universality of epidemic spreading and suggests that simple models can provide meaningful insights into the dynamics of the outbreak. The paper also discusses the limitations of the SIRD model and the need for more data to refine predictions. The findings are intended to assist health and political authorities in their strategic planning during the outbreak.This paper analyzes the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China, Italy, and France between January 22 and March 11, 2020. Using a simple susceptible-infected-recovered-deaths (SIRD) model, the study finds that the recovery rate is similar across the three countries, while the infection and death rates vary. The model predicts that the peak of the epidemic in Italy occurs around March 21, 2020, with approximately 15,000 confirmed infected individuals and 9,300 deaths, consistent with seasonal flu figures. However, since confirmed cases are estimated to be between 10-20% of the actual number of infected individuals, the apparent mortality rate in Italy is between 3-7%, higher than seasonal flu, while in China it is between 1-3%. The study also estimates that around 2000 ventilation units would be needed to handle the peak in Italy. Simulations of the effects of drastic containment measures show that a significant reduction in the infection rate can quench the epidemic peak, but this requires a rapid and drastic cutback in the infection rate. The analysis suggests that such measures are only feasible through a concerted and disciplined effort by the population. The results are based on data from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. The study highlights the universality of epidemic spreading and suggests that simple models can provide meaningful insights into the dynamics of the outbreak. The paper also discusses the limitations of the SIRD model and the need for more data to refine predictions. The findings are intended to assist health and political authorities in their strategic planning during the outbreak.