This paper analyzes the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, Italy, and France from January 22 to March 11, 2020. The authors use simple day-lag maps to identify universality in the epidemic spreading, suggesting that mean-field models can effectively describe the spread of the disease. Within a susceptible-infected-recovered-deaths (SIRD) model, they find that the recovery rate is consistent across countries, while infection and death rates vary. The model predicts a peak in Italy around March 21, 2020, with about 15,000 confirmed cases and 9,300 deaths, similar to seasonal flu epidemics. The apparent mortality rate is estimated to be between 3% and 7% in Italy, compared to 1% to 3% in China. The study also estimates that 2,000 ventilation units are needed for the peak in Italy. Additionally, the authors simulate the effects of drastic containment measures, showing that a rapid and significant reduction in the infection rate is necessary to significantly reduce the epidemic peak and mortality rate.This paper analyzes the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, Italy, and France from January 22 to March 11, 2020. The authors use simple day-lag maps to identify universality in the epidemic spreading, suggesting that mean-field models can effectively describe the spread of the disease. Within a susceptible-infected-recovered-deaths (SIRD) model, they find that the recovery rate is consistent across countries, while infection and death rates vary. The model predicts a peak in Italy around March 21, 2020, with about 15,000 confirmed cases and 9,300 deaths, similar to seasonal flu epidemics. The apparent mortality rate is estimated to be between 3% and 7% in Italy, compared to 1% to 3% in China. The study also estimates that 2,000 ventilation units are needed for the peak in Italy. Additionally, the authors simulate the effects of drastic containment measures, showing that a rapid and significant reduction in the infection rate is necessary to significantly reduce the epidemic peak and mortality rate.