Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?

Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?

Revised October 2011 | David A. Hirshleifer, Angie Low, Siew Hong Teoh
The paper examines whether overconfident CEOs are better innovators. Using options- and press-based proxies for CEO overconfidence, the authors find that overconfident CEOs have greater return volatility, invest more in innovation, obtain more patents and patent citations, and achieve greater innovative success relative to non-overconfident CEOs, especially in innovative industries. The findings suggest that overconfidence may help CEOs exploit innovative growth opportunities. The study also controls for various firm characteristics and industry effects, and robustness checks are conducted to validate the results.The paper examines whether overconfident CEOs are better innovators. Using options- and press-based proxies for CEO overconfidence, the authors find that overconfident CEOs have greater return volatility, invest more in innovation, obtain more patents and patent citations, and achieve greater innovative success relative to non-overconfident CEOs, especially in innovative industries. The findings suggest that overconfidence may help CEOs exploit innovative growth opportunities. The study also controls for various firm characteristics and industry effects, and robustness checks are conducted to validate the results.
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