Assessing the Benefits and Risks of Quantum Computers

Assessing the Benefits and Risks of Quantum Computers

February 14, 2024 | Travis L. Scholten, Carl J. Williams, Dustin Moody, Michele Mosca, William "whurley" Hurley, William J. Zeng, Matthias Troyer, and Jay M. Gambetta
Quantum computing is an emerging technology with significant implications for national prosperity and security. This paper reviews the current understanding of the potential uses and risks of quantum computers, focusing on their economic benefits and national security risks, particularly through cryptanalysis. While current quantum computers are not yet capable of large-scale, industrially-relevant applications, they are not believed to pose immediate security risks. The paper identifies two major trends: the development of new approximate methods (variational algorithms, error mitigation, and circuit knitting) and the commercial exploration of quantum applications. These trends may enable practical quantum computing in the near future. The paper also discusses the implications of quantum computing for national security, particularly in relation to cryptanalysis. Current and known algorithms for cryptanalysis require circuits that are too large for current and near-future quantum computers, although improvements in quantum algorithms are ongoing. The migration to quantum-safe cryptographic protocols can effectively manage cybersecurity risks. The paper concludes that quantum computers are likely to become economically impactful before they can perform cryptographically-relevant computations. The paper highlights three major trends that suggest the possibility of quantum computing being useful in the near future: the development of new quantum algorithms requiring small-sized circuits, techniques for managing noise in quantum circuits, and methods for decomposing large circuits into smaller ones. These trends are amenable to current and near-future quantum computers. While error correction remains essential for full quantum computing potential, near-future quantum computers may still be useful for practical problems. The paper also discusses the commercial adoption of quantum computing and the potential for quantum computers to be used in business-relevant applications. It emphasizes the importance of transitioning to quantum-safe cryptographic protocols to mitigate cybersecurity risks. The paper concludes that while cybersecurity concerns are valid, they should not prevent the exploration of quantum computing's potential benefits. Both quantum-ready and quantum-safe approaches are crucial for agencies and organizations. Policy makers and regulators should find a balanced approach to ensure the benefits of quantum computing are realized while managing cybersecurity risks.Quantum computing is an emerging technology with significant implications for national prosperity and security. This paper reviews the current understanding of the potential uses and risks of quantum computers, focusing on their economic benefits and national security risks, particularly through cryptanalysis. While current quantum computers are not yet capable of large-scale, industrially-relevant applications, they are not believed to pose immediate security risks. The paper identifies two major trends: the development of new approximate methods (variational algorithms, error mitigation, and circuit knitting) and the commercial exploration of quantum applications. These trends may enable practical quantum computing in the near future. The paper also discusses the implications of quantum computing for national security, particularly in relation to cryptanalysis. Current and known algorithms for cryptanalysis require circuits that are too large for current and near-future quantum computers, although improvements in quantum algorithms are ongoing. The migration to quantum-safe cryptographic protocols can effectively manage cybersecurity risks. The paper concludes that quantum computers are likely to become economically impactful before they can perform cryptographically-relevant computations. The paper highlights three major trends that suggest the possibility of quantum computing being useful in the near future: the development of new quantum algorithms requiring small-sized circuits, techniques for managing noise in quantum circuits, and methods for decomposing large circuits into smaller ones. These trends are amenable to current and near-future quantum computers. While error correction remains essential for full quantum computing potential, near-future quantum computers may still be useful for practical problems. The paper also discusses the commercial adoption of quantum computing and the potential for quantum computers to be used in business-relevant applications. It emphasizes the importance of transitioning to quantum-safe cryptographic protocols to mitigate cybersecurity risks. The paper concludes that while cybersecurity concerns are valid, they should not prevent the exploration of quantum computing's potential benefits. Both quantum-ready and quantum-safe approaches are crucial for agencies and organizations. Policy makers and regulators should find a balanced approach to ensure the benefits of quantum computing are realized while managing cybersecurity risks.
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