Received 19 November 2008, Revised in revised form 7 April 2009, Accepted 8 April 2009 | David S. Lee, David W. Fahey, Piers M. Forster, Peter J. Newton, Ron C.N. Wit, Ling L. Lim, Bethan Owen, Robert Sausen
The article provides an updated assessment of the radiative forcing (RF) contributions from aviation activities in 2005, based on new operational data. The study finds that aviation's RF contribution increased by 14% from 2000 to 2005, with total aviation RF (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) of ~55 mW m⁻² (23–87 mW m⁻², 90% likelihood range). Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF to ~78 mW m⁻² (38–139 mW m⁻², 90% likelihood range). The article also presents future scenarios of aviation emissions and RFs for 2050, and discusses potential mitigation opportunities through technological improvements and policy measures. The updated RF estimates highlight the significant impact of aviation on climate forcing, which is currently estimated to account for 3.5% (2–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic RF excluding induced cirrus, and 4.9% (2–14%, 90% likelihood range) when induced cirrus is included.The article provides an updated assessment of the radiative forcing (RF) contributions from aviation activities in 2005, based on new operational data. The study finds that aviation's RF contribution increased by 14% from 2000 to 2005, with total aviation RF (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) of ~55 mW m⁻² (23–87 mW m⁻², 90% likelihood range). Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF to ~78 mW m⁻² (38–139 mW m⁻², 90% likelihood range). The article also presents future scenarios of aviation emissions and RFs for 2050, and discusses potential mitigation opportunities through technological improvements and policy measures. The updated RF estimates highlight the significant impact of aviation on climate forcing, which is currently estimated to account for 3.5% (2–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic RF excluding induced cirrus, and 4.9% (2–14%, 90% likelihood range) when induced cirrus is included.