Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models

Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models

April 20, 1998 | Adrian E. Raftery, David Madigan, Jennifer A. Hoeting
The paper "Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models" by Raftery, Madigan, and Hoeting addresses the issue of accounting for model uncertainty in linear regression models. The authors propose two alternative approaches to Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) when the full Bayesian solution is impractical: "Occam's Window" and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model composition (MC³). Occam's Window is an ad hoc procedure that selects a small set of models for averaging, while MC³ directly approximates the exact solution using MCMC. Both methods improve predictive performance compared to single models selected by standard variable selection techniques. The paper also discusses the application of these methods in a crime and punishment dataset, demonstrating their effectiveness in resolving conflicts between different models and providing better calibrated predictions. Additionally, the authors show that Occam's Window can successfully identify the null model when there is no relationship between predictors and the response, addressing a common issue in model selection. The paper concludes by discussing related work and future directions, emphasizing the flexibility and practicality of the proposed methods.The paper "Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models" by Raftery, Madigan, and Hoeting addresses the issue of accounting for model uncertainty in linear regression models. The authors propose two alternative approaches to Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) when the full Bayesian solution is impractical: "Occam's Window" and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model composition (MC³). Occam's Window is an ad hoc procedure that selects a small set of models for averaging, while MC³ directly approximates the exact solution using MCMC. Both methods improve predictive performance compared to single models selected by standard variable selection techniques. The paper also discusses the application of these methods in a crime and punishment dataset, demonstrating their effectiveness in resolving conflicts between different models and providing better calibrated predictions. Additionally, the authors show that Occam's Window can successfully identify the null model when there is no relationship between predictors and the response, addressing a common issue in model selection. The paper concludes by discussing related work and future directions, emphasizing the flexibility and practicality of the proposed methods.
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