Bitcoin, gold and the dollar: A GARCH volatility analysis

Bitcoin, gold and the dollar: A GARCH volatility analysis

October 2015 | Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo
Anne Haubo Dyhrberg's paper analyzes the volatility of Bitcoin using GARCH models to determine its role in financial markets. The study compares Bitcoin to gold and the dollar, examining its potential as a financial asset, medium of exchange, and hedge. The research finds that Bitcoin shares similarities with gold in terms of volatility and response to market shocks, but also exhibits characteristics of a currency due to its sensitivity to the federal funds rate and its use in international transactions. The GARCH model reveals that Bitcoin's volatility is influenced by factors such as exchange rates, the Federal Funds Rate, and the Financial Times Stock Exchange Index. The study also finds that Bitcoin's volatility is symmetric, indicating that positive and negative shocks have similar effects on its price. The exponential GARCH model further confirms that Bitcoin does not exhibit an asymmetric leverage effect, suggesting it can be used as a hedge against market risks. Overall, the paper concludes that Bitcoin is somewhere between a currency and a commodity, offering a unique combination of characteristics that make it useful for portfolio management, risk analysis, and market sentiment analysis. The findings suggest that Bitcoin can serve as a valuable asset in financial markets, providing investors with additional tools for managing risk and diversifying their portfolios.Anne Haubo Dyhrberg's paper analyzes the volatility of Bitcoin using GARCH models to determine its role in financial markets. The study compares Bitcoin to gold and the dollar, examining its potential as a financial asset, medium of exchange, and hedge. The research finds that Bitcoin shares similarities with gold in terms of volatility and response to market shocks, but also exhibits characteristics of a currency due to its sensitivity to the federal funds rate and its use in international transactions. The GARCH model reveals that Bitcoin's volatility is influenced by factors such as exchange rates, the Federal Funds Rate, and the Financial Times Stock Exchange Index. The study also finds that Bitcoin's volatility is symmetric, indicating that positive and negative shocks have similar effects on its price. The exponential GARCH model further confirms that Bitcoin does not exhibit an asymmetric leverage effect, suggesting it can be used as a hedge against market risks. Overall, the paper concludes that Bitcoin is somewhere between a currency and a commodity, offering a unique combination of characteristics that make it useful for portfolio management, risk analysis, and market sentiment analysis. The findings suggest that Bitcoin can serve as a valuable asset in financial markets, providing investors with additional tools for managing risk and diversifying their portfolios.
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[slides and audio] Bitcoin%2C gold and the dollar %E2%80%93 A GARCH volatility analysis