COVID-19 and Italy: what next?

COVID-19 and Italy: what next?

March 12, 2020 | Andrea Remuzzi, Giuseppe Remuzzi
Elsevier established a free COVID-19 resource center in January 2020, offering information in English and Mandarin. The center grants permission to make all research freely available in PubMed Central and other repositories. The article discusses the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy, highlighting the rapid increase in infections and the strain on the healthcare system. As of March 11, Italy had over 12,000 confirmed cases and 827 deaths. The percentage of patients in intensive care units was around 9-11%, with a projected exponential growth in infections. If this trend continues, over 30,000 infections could occur by March 15, requiring thousands of intensive care beds. The Italian healthcare system is under significant pressure, with limited resources and staff. The article models the spread of the virus and predicts the need for additional beds and personnel. It compares Italy's situation to that of Hubei, China, suggesting that the number of new infections may start to decline within 3-4 days. The article emphasizes the need for urgent action to prepare for the increased demand on healthcare resources. It also discusses the importance of public health measures and the challenges faced by the Italian healthcare system. The article concludes that immediate action is necessary to ensure adequate resources for the coming weeks.Elsevier established a free COVID-19 resource center in January 2020, offering information in English and Mandarin. The center grants permission to make all research freely available in PubMed Central and other repositories. The article discusses the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy, highlighting the rapid increase in infections and the strain on the healthcare system. As of March 11, Italy had over 12,000 confirmed cases and 827 deaths. The percentage of patients in intensive care units was around 9-11%, with a projected exponential growth in infections. If this trend continues, over 30,000 infections could occur by March 15, requiring thousands of intensive care beds. The Italian healthcare system is under significant pressure, with limited resources and staff. The article models the spread of the virus and predicts the need for additional beds and personnel. It compares Italy's situation to that of Hubei, China, suggesting that the number of new infections may start to decline within 3-4 days. The article emphasizes the need for urgent action to prepare for the increased demand on healthcare resources. It also discusses the importance of public health measures and the challenges faced by the Italian healthcare system. The article concludes that immediate action is necessary to ensure adequate resources for the coming weeks.
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