Can mutual fund stars really pick stocks? New evidence from a bootstrap analysis

Can mutual fund stars really pick stocks? New evidence from a bootstrap analysis

May 2005 | Kosowski, Robert; Timmermann, Allan; Wermers, Russ; White, Hal
This paper examines the performance of U.S. open-end, domestic-equity mutual funds from 1975 to 2002 using a bootstrap statistical technique. The authors aim to determine whether high-alpha fund managers are simply lucky or possess genuine stock-picking skills. The bootstrap approach is necessary because the distribution of mutual fund alphas is complex and non-normal, influenced by heterogeneous risk-taking and non-normalities in individual fund alpha distributions. The study finds that a significant minority of managers have superior stock-picking skills, and these superior alphas persist over time. The results suggest that the performance of star mutual fund managers is not solely due to luck but is a result of genuine stock-picking abilities. The paper also highlights the economic impact of these superior managers, estimating that they generate about $1.2 billion in wealth annually through active management. The findings challenge previous studies that attributed fund performance primarily to luck and provide compelling evidence of the existence of skilled fund managers.This paper examines the performance of U.S. open-end, domestic-equity mutual funds from 1975 to 2002 using a bootstrap statistical technique. The authors aim to determine whether high-alpha fund managers are simply lucky or possess genuine stock-picking skills. The bootstrap approach is necessary because the distribution of mutual fund alphas is complex and non-normal, influenced by heterogeneous risk-taking and non-normalities in individual fund alpha distributions. The study finds that a significant minority of managers have superior stock-picking skills, and these superior alphas persist over time. The results suggest that the performance of star mutual fund managers is not solely due to luck but is a result of genuine stock-picking abilities. The paper also highlights the economic impact of these superior managers, estimating that they generate about $1.2 billion in wealth annually through active management. The findings challenge previous studies that attributed fund performance primarily to luck and provide compelling evidence of the existence of skilled fund managers.
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