Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US

Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US

2024-06-10 | Philip S. Rosenberg, PhD; Adalberto Miranda-Filho, PhD
This study investigates cancer incidence trends in successive social generations in the United States. Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, researchers analyzed 3.8 million cases of invasive cancers diagnosed between 1992 and 2018, focusing on individuals aged 35 to 84 years. The study employed semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models to estimate fitted cohort patterns (FCPs) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 to 1983. Key findings include: - **Generation X (1965-1980)**: Compared to Baby Boomers (1946-1964), Generation X experienced significantly higher IRRs for thyroid, kidney, rectal, corpus uterine, colon, pancreatic, and non-Hodgkins lymphoma cancers among women, and thyroid, kidney, rectal, colon, and prostate cancers among men. - **Baby Boomers**: Compared to the Silent Generation (1928-1945), Baby Boomers saw mixed trends, with some cancers decreasing and others increasing. - **Silent Generation**: Compared to the Greatest Generation (1908-1927), the Silent Generation had lower incidence rates for many cancers, particularly among non-Hispanic Black women. - **Greatest Generation**: Compared to the Silent Generation, the Greatest Generation had higher incidence rates for esophageal, pancreatic, and colon cancers among non-Hispanic Black women, and for gallbladder cancer among Hispanic women. The study concludes that Generation X is experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers compared to previous generations. If current trends continue, cancer incidence in the US could remain high for decades. The findings highlight the need for continued cancer control initiatives and preventive measures to address rising cancer rates, especially among younger age groups.This study investigates cancer incidence trends in successive social generations in the United States. Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, researchers analyzed 3.8 million cases of invasive cancers diagnosed between 1992 and 2018, focusing on individuals aged 35 to 84 years. The study employed semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models to estimate fitted cohort patterns (FCPs) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 to 1983. Key findings include: - **Generation X (1965-1980)**: Compared to Baby Boomers (1946-1964), Generation X experienced significantly higher IRRs for thyroid, kidney, rectal, corpus uterine, colon, pancreatic, and non-Hodgkins lymphoma cancers among women, and thyroid, kidney, rectal, colon, and prostate cancers among men. - **Baby Boomers**: Compared to the Silent Generation (1928-1945), Baby Boomers saw mixed trends, with some cancers decreasing and others increasing. - **Silent Generation**: Compared to the Greatest Generation (1908-1927), the Silent Generation had lower incidence rates for many cancers, particularly among non-Hispanic Black women. - **Greatest Generation**: Compared to the Silent Generation, the Greatest Generation had higher incidence rates for esophageal, pancreatic, and colon cancers among non-Hispanic Black women, and for gallbladder cancer among Hispanic women. The study concludes that Generation X is experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers compared to previous generations. If current trends continue, cancer incidence in the US could remain high for decades. The findings highlight the need for continued cancer control initiatives and preventive measures to address rising cancer rates, especially among younger age groups.
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