Guillermo A. Calvo analyzes the mechanisms through which sudden stops in international capital flows can lead to financial and balance of payments crises. He argues that such crises can occur even when current account deficits (CADs) are fully financed by foreign direct investment (FDI). However, equity and long-term bond financing may protect the economy from sudden stop crises. The paper examines factors that could trigger sudden stops and suggests that countries are more vulnerable to such crises at the international level than at the national level due to greater independence.
The paper discusses the effects of a slowdown in capital inflows in a non-monetary economy, showing that a sudden stop in capital inflows (KI) can lead to a sudden contraction in CAD, which may result in lower demand for tradable goods and a higher real exchange rate. This can lead to financial disruption and bankruptcies, particularly if the CAD falls unexpectedly. The paper also highlights the role of debt maturity structure and the importance of a country's ability to refinance its debt.
The paper argues that sudden stops can be self-fulfilling, as pessimistic expectations about the economy's future can lead to a contraction in capital inflows. This can result in a sharp decrease in the relative price of nontradables with respect to tradables, leading to financial turmoil. The paper also discusses the role of sticky prices and wages in a monetary economy and the impact of currency devaluation on debt denominated in foreign exchange.
The paper concludes that sudden stops in capital inflows are dangerous and can lead to bankruptcies and the destruction of human capital. It suggests that financial sector policies should focus on preventing liquidity crises and protecting the economy from sudden stops. The paper also emphasizes the importance of efficient bankruptcy regulations and the need for a balanced budget in the aftermath of a crisis. The paper highlights the importance of gradual financial reform and the need for strong regulatory frameworks to prevent financial crises.Guillermo A. Calvo analyzes the mechanisms through which sudden stops in international capital flows can lead to financial and balance of payments crises. He argues that such crises can occur even when current account deficits (CADs) are fully financed by foreign direct investment (FDI). However, equity and long-term bond financing may protect the economy from sudden stop crises. The paper examines factors that could trigger sudden stops and suggests that countries are more vulnerable to such crises at the international level than at the national level due to greater independence.
The paper discusses the effects of a slowdown in capital inflows in a non-monetary economy, showing that a sudden stop in capital inflows (KI) can lead to a sudden contraction in CAD, which may result in lower demand for tradable goods and a higher real exchange rate. This can lead to financial disruption and bankruptcies, particularly if the CAD falls unexpectedly. The paper also highlights the role of debt maturity structure and the importance of a country's ability to refinance its debt.
The paper argues that sudden stops can be self-fulfilling, as pessimistic expectations about the economy's future can lead to a contraction in capital inflows. This can result in a sharp decrease in the relative price of nontradables with respect to tradables, leading to financial turmoil. The paper also discusses the role of sticky prices and wages in a monetary economy and the impact of currency devaluation on debt denominated in foreign exchange.
The paper concludes that sudden stops in capital inflows are dangerous and can lead to bankruptcies and the destruction of human capital. It suggests that financial sector policies should focus on preventing liquidity crises and protecting the economy from sudden stops. The paper also emphasizes the importance of efficient bankruptcy regulations and the need for a balanced budget in the aftermath of a crisis. The paper highlights the importance of gradual financial reform and the need for strong regulatory frameworks to prevent financial crises.