Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change

Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change

13 December 2012 | R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, J. Pongratz, G. R. van der Werf, R. S. DeFries, M. C. Hansen, C. Le Quéré, and N. Ramankutty
The paper reviews and synthesizes estimates of carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change (LULCC) over the period 1980-2010. LULCC accounted for 12.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1990 to 2010, making it the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget. The net flux of carbon from LULCC is influenced by uncertainties in deforestation rates, forestation rates, and carbon density of the lands undergoing change. Thirteen recent estimates of net carbon emissions from LULCC are summarized, with the mean annual emissions for the 1980s and 1990s being 1.14 ± 0.23 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\) and 1.12 ± 0.25 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\), respectively. For the period 2000-2009, the mean emissions are 1.14 ± 0.39 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\), 1.17 ± 0.32 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\), and 1.10 ± 0.11 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\). The mean global emissions from LULCC for the period 1990-2009 are 1.14 ± 0.18 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\). The standard deviations across model means do not fully account for data uncertainty and the understanding of multiple processes affecting the net flux of carbon from LULCC. The paper discusses the methods used to estimate LULCC, including nationally aggregated land-use statistics, satellite data on land cover, and satellite data on fires. It also addresses the treatment of environmental change, such as CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition, and the inclusion of additional LULCC processes like forest management and shifting cultivation. The paper highlights the challenges in attributing carbon fluxes to LULCC due to the interaction between direct and indirect effects, and the need for more comprehensive data and models to improve estimates.The paper reviews and synthesizes estimates of carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change (LULCC) over the period 1980-2010. LULCC accounted for 12.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1990 to 2010, making it the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget. The net flux of carbon from LULCC is influenced by uncertainties in deforestation rates, forestation rates, and carbon density of the lands undergoing change. Thirteen recent estimates of net carbon emissions from LULCC are summarized, with the mean annual emissions for the 1980s and 1990s being 1.14 ± 0.23 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\) and 1.12 ± 0.25 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\), respectively. For the period 2000-2009, the mean emissions are 1.14 ± 0.39 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\), 1.17 ± 0.32 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\), and 1.10 ± 0.11 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\). The mean global emissions from LULCC for the period 1990-2009 are 1.14 ± 0.18 Pg C yr\(^{-1}\). The standard deviations across model means do not fully account for data uncertainty and the understanding of multiple processes affecting the net flux of carbon from LULCC. The paper discusses the methods used to estimate LULCC, including nationally aggregated land-use statistics, satellite data on land cover, and satellite data on fires. It also addresses the treatment of environmental change, such as CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition, and the inclusion of additional LULCC processes like forest management and shifting cultivation. The paper highlights the challenges in attributing carbon fluxes to LULCC due to the interaction between direct and indirect effects, and the need for more comprehensive data and models to improve estimates.
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