Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change

Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change

13 December 2012 | R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, J. Pongratz, G. R. van der Werf, R. S. DeFries, M. C. Hansen, C. Le Quéré, and N. Ramankutty
Land use and land-cover change (LULCC) contribute 12.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1990 to 2010, being the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget. This uncertainty arises from variability in deforestation rates, carbon density of changing lands, and differences in estimation methods. Thirteen recent estimates of net carbon emissions from LULCC are summarized, showing annual emissions of 1.14 ± 0.23 Pg C yr⁻¹ in the 1980s and 1.12 ± 0.25 Pg C yr⁻¹ in the 1990s. For 2000–2009, the mean is 1.14 ± 0.18 Pg C yr⁻¹. These estimates are less uncertain than previous ones, as they do not account for data and process uncertainties. The net flux from LULCC is the most uncertain term in the carbon budget, with emissions ranging from 0.4 to 2.3 Pg C yr⁻¹ in the 1980s, 0.5 to 2.7 Pg C yr⁻¹ in the 1990s, and 1.1 ± 0.7 Pg C yr⁻¹ from 2000 to 2009. LULCC affects the global carbon budget by contributing to carbon emissions and influencing climate through emissions of chemically and radiatively active gases and biophysical effects. The net flux from LULCC is not the total net flux between land and atmosphere, as unmanaged terrestrial ecosystems also contribute. The land is currently a net sink despite LULCC emissions, due to factors like forest regrowth and environmental changes. LULCC includes only direct human-induced changes, excluding natural or indirect effects. However, attribution is difficult due to interactions between direct and indirect effects. The paper reviews and synthesizes recent estimates of LULCC carbon fluxes, showing that the mean annual net flux from LULCC is 1.14 ± 0.18 Pg C yr⁻¹ for 1990–2009. The standard deviations across model means are smaller than previous estimates, indicating reduced uncertainty. The paper discusses differences in estimates due to data on LULCC rates, carbon density, environmental changes, and included processes. It also highlights the importance of considering delayed (legacy) fluxes, which can significantly affect current emissions. The treatment of environmental changes, such as CO₂ fertilization and nitrogen deposition, varies among models, affecting estimates. The paper concludes that future research is needed to better understand and quantify the uncertainties in LULCC carbon fluxes.Land use and land-cover change (LULCC) contribute 12.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1990 to 2010, being the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget. This uncertainty arises from variability in deforestation rates, carbon density of changing lands, and differences in estimation methods. Thirteen recent estimates of net carbon emissions from LULCC are summarized, showing annual emissions of 1.14 ± 0.23 Pg C yr⁻¹ in the 1980s and 1.12 ± 0.25 Pg C yr⁻¹ in the 1990s. For 2000–2009, the mean is 1.14 ± 0.18 Pg C yr⁻¹. These estimates are less uncertain than previous ones, as they do not account for data and process uncertainties. The net flux from LULCC is the most uncertain term in the carbon budget, with emissions ranging from 0.4 to 2.3 Pg C yr⁻¹ in the 1980s, 0.5 to 2.7 Pg C yr⁻¹ in the 1990s, and 1.1 ± 0.7 Pg C yr⁻¹ from 2000 to 2009. LULCC affects the global carbon budget by contributing to carbon emissions and influencing climate through emissions of chemically and radiatively active gases and biophysical effects. The net flux from LULCC is not the total net flux between land and atmosphere, as unmanaged terrestrial ecosystems also contribute. The land is currently a net sink despite LULCC emissions, due to factors like forest regrowth and environmental changes. LULCC includes only direct human-induced changes, excluding natural or indirect effects. However, attribution is difficult due to interactions between direct and indirect effects. The paper reviews and synthesizes recent estimates of LULCC carbon fluxes, showing that the mean annual net flux from LULCC is 1.14 ± 0.18 Pg C yr⁻¹ for 1990–2009. The standard deviations across model means are smaller than previous estimates, indicating reduced uncertainty. The paper discusses differences in estimates due to data on LULCC rates, carbon density, environmental changes, and included processes. It also highlights the importance of considering delayed (legacy) fluxes, which can significantly affect current emissions. The treatment of environmental changes, such as CO₂ fertilization and nitrogen deposition, varies among models, affecting estimates. The paper concludes that future research is needed to better understand and quantify the uncertainties in LULCC carbon fluxes.
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