Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

26 June 2020 | Juanjuan Zhang, Maria Litvinova, Yuxia Liang, Yan Wang, Wei Wang, Shanlu Zhao, Qianhui Wu, Stefano Merler, Cécile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
This study examines the impact of social distancing and school closures on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and Shanghai, China. Intense nonpharmaceutical interventions were implemented to control the spread of the virus. Contact survey data from Wuhan and Shanghai, as well as contact-tracing information from Hunan province, were analyzed to understand changes in contact patterns and age-specific susceptibility to infection. The results show that daily contacts were reduced by seven to eight times during the social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to households. Children aged 0 to 14 years were found to be less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to adults aged 15 to 64 years, while individuals over 65 years of age were more susceptible. A transmission model was developed to study the impact of social distancing and school closures. The model indicates that social distancing alone is sufficient to control COVID-19, while school closures can reduce peak incidence by 40 to 60% and delay the epidemic. The study highlights the importance of age-specific interventions and the need for targeted strategies to long-term control of the virus.This study examines the impact of social distancing and school closures on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and Shanghai, China. Intense nonpharmaceutical interventions were implemented to control the spread of the virus. Contact survey data from Wuhan and Shanghai, as well as contact-tracing information from Hunan province, were analyzed to understand changes in contact patterns and age-specific susceptibility to infection. The results show that daily contacts were reduced by seven to eight times during the social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to households. Children aged 0 to 14 years were found to be less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to adults aged 15 to 64 years, while individuals over 65 years of age were more susceptible. A transmission model was developed to study the impact of social distancing and school closures. The model indicates that social distancing alone is sufficient to control COVID-19, while school closures can reduce peak incidence by 40 to 60% and delay the epidemic. The study highlights the importance of age-specific interventions and the need for targeted strategies to long-term control of the virus.
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