Changes in monsoon precipitation in East Asia under a 2°C interglacial warming

Changes in monsoon precipitation in East Asia under a 2°C interglacial warming

15 May 2024 | Xinbo Gao, Qingzhen Hao, Luo Wang, Yang Song, Junyi Ge, Haibin Wu, Bing Xu, Long Han, Yu Fu, Xuechao Wu, Chenglong Deng, Zhengtang Guo
This study investigates the changes in monsoon precipitation in East Asia under a 2°C interglacial warming scenario. Using high-resolution quantitative reconstructions of temperature and precipitation from the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 800,000 years, the authors find that the average precipitation increase estimated by interglacial data is only about half of that estimated for the glacial-to-interglacial transition. This discrepancy is attributed to the amplification of climate change by ice volume variations. The analysis suggests an increase in monsoon precipitation of approximately 100 mm for a 2°C warming level on the Chinese Loess Plateau. The study highlights the importance of understanding past warm interglacial periods to provide more realistic analogs for future climate projections, as the current interglacial warming involves significant changes in Arctic ice volume, which cannot be fully captured by the last glacial-to-interglacial warming. The results provide valuable insights for climate modeling and future climate change assessments.This study investigates the changes in monsoon precipitation in East Asia under a 2°C interglacial warming scenario. Using high-resolution quantitative reconstructions of temperature and precipitation from the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 800,000 years, the authors find that the average precipitation increase estimated by interglacial data is only about half of that estimated for the glacial-to-interglacial transition. This discrepancy is attributed to the amplification of climate change by ice volume variations. The analysis suggests an increase in monsoon precipitation of approximately 100 mm for a 2°C warming level on the Chinese Loess Plateau. The study highlights the importance of understanding past warm interglacial periods to provide more realistic analogs for future climate projections, as the current interglacial warming involves significant changes in Arctic ice volume, which cannot be fully captured by the last glacial-to-interglacial warming. The results provide valuable insights for climate modeling and future climate change assessments.
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