Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

14 Jul 2015 | W. Matt Jolly1, Mark A. Cochrane2, Patrick H. Freeborn1,2, Zachary A. Holden3, Timothy J. Brown4, Grant J. Williamson5 & David M.J.S. Bowman5
This study examines climate-induced changes in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013. Using three global climate datasets and three fire danger indices, the researchers developed a metric to measure fire weather season length. They found that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km² (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. Additionally, the global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (greater than 1.0σ above the historical mean) has doubled, and the frequency of long fire weather seasons has increased across 62.4 million km² (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. These changes, if coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, could significantly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies, and climate. Wildfires play a crucial role in terrestrial and atmospheric systems, with global annual burned area approaching 350 MHa per year and annual pyrogenic CO₂ emissions exceeding 50% of fossil fuel combustion emissions. Fire weather is influenced by temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed, with extreme weather conditions leading to the most severe fires. Global temperatures have increased by approximately 0.2°C per decade, potentially accelerating the global water cycle and increasing rainfall intensity, drought severity, and regional humidity variations. Regional droughts are closely linked to sea surface temperature variations, and regional water availability can explain a significant portion of burned area variations. The study found that fire weather season length increased globally by 18.7% from 1979 to 2013, with significant increases observed in 25.3% of the global vegetated area. Long fire weather seasons have increased by 3.1% per year, leading to a 108.1% increase in global long fire weather season affected area. The frequency of long fire weather seasons increased across 53.4% of the global vegetated area, with decreased frequency observed in 34.6%. These trends were strongly correlated with the global mean number of days without wetting rainfall (>0.1 mm). The study also found that fire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area increased significantly across all continents except Australia. Most biomes showed significant increases in fire weather season metrics, with the strongest trends observed in tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands. The study highlights the importance of understanding climate-induced changes in wildfire activity to effectively manage wildfires and minimize negative socio-economic impacts.This study examines climate-induced changes in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013. Using three global climate datasets and three fire danger indices, the researchers developed a metric to measure fire weather season length. They found that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km² (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. Additionally, the global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (greater than 1.0σ above the historical mean) has doubled, and the frequency of long fire weather seasons has increased across 62.4 million km² (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. These changes, if coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, could significantly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies, and climate. Wildfires play a crucial role in terrestrial and atmospheric systems, with global annual burned area approaching 350 MHa per year and annual pyrogenic CO₂ emissions exceeding 50% of fossil fuel combustion emissions. Fire weather is influenced by temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed, with extreme weather conditions leading to the most severe fires. Global temperatures have increased by approximately 0.2°C per decade, potentially accelerating the global water cycle and increasing rainfall intensity, drought severity, and regional humidity variations. Regional droughts are closely linked to sea surface temperature variations, and regional water availability can explain a significant portion of burned area variations. The study found that fire weather season length increased globally by 18.7% from 1979 to 2013, with significant increases observed in 25.3% of the global vegetated area. Long fire weather seasons have increased by 3.1% per year, leading to a 108.1% increase in global long fire weather season affected area. The frequency of long fire weather seasons increased across 53.4% of the global vegetated area, with decreased frequency observed in 34.6%. These trends were strongly correlated with the global mean number of days without wetting rainfall (>0.1 mm). The study also found that fire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area increased significantly across all continents except Australia. Most biomes showed significant increases in fire weather season metrics, with the strongest trends observed in tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands. The study highlights the importance of understanding climate-induced changes in wildfire activity to effectively manage wildfires and minimize negative socio-economic impacts.
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Understanding Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013