Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

2024-04-12 | Nihan Karali, Nina Khanna, Nihar Shah
The report "Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production" by Nihan Karali, Nina Khanna, and Nihar Shah from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory examines the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production of primary plastics. The study focuses on nine major types of fossil fuel-based plastic polymers: three types of polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polystyrene (PS), styrene acrylonitrile (SAN), acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). These polymers account for about 80% of global plastic production. The report estimates that in 2019, primary plastic production generated approximately 2.24 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in GHG emissions, representing 5.3% of total global GHG emissions (excluding agriculture and land use, land-use change, and forestry). The emissions are primarily generated from the combustion of fossil fuels for process heat and electricity, as well as other non-combustion processes. The report finds that about 75% of the GHG emissions occur before polymerization, mainly from monomer production, hydrocarbon refining, and other chemical production. Under various growth scenarios, the report projects that GHG emissions from primary plastic production could more than double by 2050, reaching 4.75 GtCO2e under a 2.5%/year growth rate or 6.78 GtCO2e under a 4%/year growth rate. These emissions would account for 21-26% and 25-31% of the remaining global carbon budget needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, respectively. The report also highlights the significant contribution of primary plastic production to climate change and the need for a detailed understanding of the climate impacts of mitigation strategies under the global plastics treaty and other climate change treaties.The report "Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production" by Nihan Karali, Nina Khanna, and Nihar Shah from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory examines the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production of primary plastics. The study focuses on nine major types of fossil fuel-based plastic polymers: three types of polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polystyrene (PS), styrene acrylonitrile (SAN), acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). These polymers account for about 80% of global plastic production. The report estimates that in 2019, primary plastic production generated approximately 2.24 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in GHG emissions, representing 5.3% of total global GHG emissions (excluding agriculture and land use, land-use change, and forestry). The emissions are primarily generated from the combustion of fossil fuels for process heat and electricity, as well as other non-combustion processes. The report finds that about 75% of the GHG emissions occur before polymerization, mainly from monomer production, hydrocarbon refining, and other chemical production. Under various growth scenarios, the report projects that GHG emissions from primary plastic production could more than double by 2050, reaching 4.75 GtCO2e under a 2.5%/year growth rate or 6.78 GtCO2e under a 4%/year growth rate. These emissions would account for 21-26% and 25-31% of the remaining global carbon budget needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, respectively. The report also highlights the significant contribution of primary plastic production to climate change and the need for a detailed understanding of the climate impacts of mitigation strategies under the global plastics treaty and other climate change treaties.
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Understanding Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production