Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence

Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence

2013 | Juha Merilä and Andrew P. Hendry
Climate change has led to phenotypic changes in natural populations, but it is challenging to determine whether these changes are genetically based or due to phenotypic plasticity. Studies often assume that phenotypic changes are adaptive without testing, and rarely exclude other potential drivers of change. This paper reviews methods for inferring genetic and plastic responses to climate change and evaluates their strengths. It highlights that while some studies have found evidence of genetic adaptation, most remain inconclusive. Plasticity is often a more common explanation for phenotypic changes, but it may not always be adaptive. The paper emphasizes the need for better inferential methods to distinguish between genetic and plastic changes and to determine whether climate change is the specific cause. It also discusses the challenges of inferring the specific environmental driver of phenotypic changes, noting that climate change is often correlated with other environmental factors. The paper concludes that more research is needed to fully understand the genetic and plastic responses to climate change.Climate change has led to phenotypic changes in natural populations, but it is challenging to determine whether these changes are genetically based or due to phenotypic plasticity. Studies often assume that phenotypic changes are adaptive without testing, and rarely exclude other potential drivers of change. This paper reviews methods for inferring genetic and plastic responses to climate change and evaluates their strengths. It highlights that while some studies have found evidence of genetic adaptation, most remain inconclusive. Plasticity is often a more common explanation for phenotypic changes, but it may not always be adaptive. The paper emphasizes the need for better inferential methods to distinguish between genetic and plastic changes and to determine whether climate change is the specific cause. It also discusses the challenges of inferring the specific environmental driver of phenotypic changes, noting that climate change is often correlated with other environmental factors. The paper concludes that more research is needed to fully understand the genetic and plastic responses to climate change.
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[slides and audio] Climate change%2C adaptation%2C and phenotypic plasticity%3A the problem and the evidence