This study investigates the recent expansion and exacerbation of dengue transmission in Brazil, focusing on climatic and demographic factors. Using data-mining techniques, the researchers identified key variables such as previous dengue incidence, urbanization, and temperature anomalies that contributed to increased dengue cases in Brazil's central region. The study found that regions previously considered barriers to dengue transmission, such as high-altitude areas, now experience high incidence rates due to climate change and environmental factors. The algorithm developed in this study can be used to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions. The distribution of dengue and other arboviruses has been changing in recent decades, with transmission areas expanding towards higher latitudes and altitudes. Factors such as the difficulty in controlling the Aedes vector and incomplete urbanization are important socio-environmental determinants of dengue. The rapid spread of Zika in tropical countries between 2013 and 2016 highlights the presence of the Aedes vector and the virus's ability to circulate through infected people, facilitated by air and ground transport. Increased temperature and precipitation have been shown to influence dengue outbreaks, which may be related to global processes such as climate change. In Brazil, dengue transmission has expanded towards the south and center of the country, with extreme weather events and the expansion of the economic frontier into the Amazon contributing to the spread. However, few studies have focused on long-term trends that demonstrate the influence of long-term temperature increases on the expansion of the transmission area and the sustainability of transmission over decades. The lack of historical and large-scale data limits empirical studies of long-term trends and the attribution of any trends to climate change. Temperature is a key environmental factor that regulates mosquito infestation and dengue transmission. The reproduction of the Aedes mosquito is viable between 18 and 33°C, and the optimal range for maintaining arbovirus transmission is 21–30°C. However, in some high areas of the Central Plateau and the Southern region, average temperatures below 18°C are observed, mainly during the winter. The increase in temperature above this value in winters in zones previously considered temperate can maintain the vector reproduction cycle and allow the sustainability of disease transmission throughout the year. The study used data-mining techniques to evaluate the association between thermal anomalies, demographic factors, and changing dengue incidence patterns over a 21-year period (2000–2020) across Brazil's microregions. The results showed that the process of expansion of the dengue transmission area appears to be irreversible. Once the virus and the vector are introduced, it is unlikely to return to a zero-transmission scenario. This situation is even more serious in microregions with higher incidence rates, in which about 77% of the microregions tend to remain with high incidence rates. The study also found that the occurrence of temperatureThis study investigates the recent expansion and exacerbation of dengue transmission in Brazil, focusing on climatic and demographic factors. Using data-mining techniques, the researchers identified key variables such as previous dengue incidence, urbanization, and temperature anomalies that contributed to increased dengue cases in Brazil's central region. The study found that regions previously considered barriers to dengue transmission, such as high-altitude areas, now experience high incidence rates due to climate change and environmental factors. The algorithm developed in this study can be used to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions. The distribution of dengue and other arboviruses has been changing in recent decades, with transmission areas expanding towards higher latitudes and altitudes. Factors such as the difficulty in controlling the Aedes vector and incomplete urbanization are important socio-environmental determinants of dengue. The rapid spread of Zika in tropical countries between 2013 and 2016 highlights the presence of the Aedes vector and the virus's ability to circulate through infected people, facilitated by air and ground transport. Increased temperature and precipitation have been shown to influence dengue outbreaks, which may be related to global processes such as climate change. In Brazil, dengue transmission has expanded towards the south and center of the country, with extreme weather events and the expansion of the economic frontier into the Amazon contributing to the spread. However, few studies have focused on long-term trends that demonstrate the influence of long-term temperature increases on the expansion of the transmission area and the sustainability of transmission over decades. The lack of historical and large-scale data limits empirical studies of long-term trends and the attribution of any trends to climate change. Temperature is a key environmental factor that regulates mosquito infestation and dengue transmission. The reproduction of the Aedes mosquito is viable between 18 and 33°C, and the optimal range for maintaining arbovirus transmission is 21–30°C. However, in some high areas of the Central Plateau and the Southern region, average temperatures below 18°C are observed, mainly during the winter. The increase in temperature above this value in winters in zones previously considered temperate can maintain the vector reproduction cycle and allow the sustainability of disease transmission throughout the year. The study used data-mining techniques to evaluate the association between thermal anomalies, demographic factors, and changing dengue incidence patterns over a 21-year period (2000–2020) across Brazil's microregions. The results showed that the process of expansion of the dengue transmission area appears to be irreversible. Once the virus and the vector are introduced, it is unlikely to return to a zero-transmission scenario. This situation is even more serious in microregions with higher incidence rates, in which about 77% of the microregions tend to remain with high incidence rates. The study also found that the occurrence of temperature