Southern Madagascar has experienced a prolonged drought over the last five years, with recent trends indicating a delayed rainy season onset. This study links these changes to anthropogenic climate change. Observations of precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness show consistent trends since the 1980s, with soil moisture trends aligning with CMIP6 simulations under anthropogenic forcing but differing from pre-industrial control simulations. These trends are attributed to a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet, delaying storm tracks over Southern Madagascar. The recent drought (2017–2022) is significantly more likely due to anthropogenic forcing, with such droughts expected to become more frequent in the coming century. Despite Madagascar's minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, farmers in Southern Madagascar must adapt to drier conditions early in the rainy season due to climate change. The study uses climate model simulations and observational data to show that anthropogenic climate change is altering the seasonal hydroclimatology of Southern Madagascar. Proxy soil moisture trends from 1982 to 2022 are 100 times more likely under anthropogenic forcing than pre-industrial conditions. The likelihood of the 2017–2022 drought is 15 times higher under anthropogenic forcing. Climate models suggest that droughts will become increasingly likely in the future. The study highlights the need for adaptation strategies in Southern Madagascar due to climate change, despite the region's limited contribution to global emissions.Southern Madagascar has experienced a prolonged drought over the last five years, with recent trends indicating a delayed rainy season onset. This study links these changes to anthropogenic climate change. Observations of precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness show consistent trends since the 1980s, with soil moisture trends aligning with CMIP6 simulations under anthropogenic forcing but differing from pre-industrial control simulations. These trends are attributed to a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet, delaying storm tracks over Southern Madagascar. The recent drought (2017–2022) is significantly more likely due to anthropogenic forcing, with such droughts expected to become more frequent in the coming century. Despite Madagascar's minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, farmers in Southern Madagascar must adapt to drier conditions early in the rainy season due to climate change. The study uses climate model simulations and observational data to show that anthropogenic climate change is altering the seasonal hydroclimatology of Southern Madagascar. Proxy soil moisture trends from 1982 to 2022 are 100 times more likely under anthropogenic forcing than pre-industrial conditions. The likelihood of the 2017–2022 drought is 15 times higher under anthropogenic forcing. Climate models suggest that droughts will become increasingly likely in the future. The study highlights the need for adaptation strategies in Southern Madagascar due to climate change, despite the region's limited contribution to global emissions.