Climate change linked to drought in Southern Madagascar

Climate change linked to drought in Southern Madagascar

2024 | Angela Rigden, Christopher Golden, Duo Chan, Peter Huybers
The study examines the link between climate change and drought in Southern Madagascar, a region that experienced a prolonged drought over the last five years. Using remote sensing data from precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness, the research documents trends starting as early as 1980 towards a later onset of the rainy season. These trends are consistent across all three indicators, particularly over the last decade. The observed soil moisture trends early in the rainy season align with CMIP6 historical and SSP5-8.5 simulations, indicating anthropogenic forcing as the primary driver. Physically, these models simulate a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet, leading to a delay in the seasonal steering of storm tracks over Southern Madagascar. Soil moisture trends driven by anthropogenic forcing significantly increased the likelihood of the recent drought (2017-2022) and are expected to become more frequent over this century. Despite Madagascar's minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, farmers in Southern Madagascar will need to adapt to drier conditions early in the rainy season due to global climate change.The study examines the link between climate change and drought in Southern Madagascar, a region that experienced a prolonged drought over the last five years. Using remote sensing data from precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness, the research documents trends starting as early as 1980 towards a later onset of the rainy season. These trends are consistent across all three indicators, particularly over the last decade. The observed soil moisture trends early in the rainy season align with CMIP6 historical and SSP5-8.5 simulations, indicating anthropogenic forcing as the primary driver. Physically, these models simulate a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet, leading to a delay in the seasonal steering of storm tracks over Southern Madagascar. Soil moisture trends driven by anthropogenic forcing significantly increased the likelihood of the recent drought (2017-2022) and are expected to become more frequent over this century. Despite Madagascar's minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, farmers in Southern Madagascar will need to adapt to drier conditions early in the rainy season due to global climate change.
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