June 7, 2005 | vol. 102 | no. 23 | 8245–8250 | Wilfried Thuiller***§, Sandra Lavorel*#*, Miguel B. Araújo*‡#, Martin T. Sykes***, and I. Colin Prentice††
Climate change is already impacting plant species distribution in Europe, and the situation is expected to worsen in the future. A study by Thuiller et al. projected the late 21st-century distributions of 1,350 European plant species under seven climate change scenarios. Using the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List criteria, the study found that over half of the species could become vulnerable or threatened by 2080. The projected species loss and turnover varied significantly across scenarios and regions, with mountain regions being particularly sensitive. The boreal region was expected to lose few species but gain many from immigration, while the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions showed the greatest changes. The study highlights the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change effects on plant diversity. Despite uncertainties, the findings underscore the potential importance and direction of climate change impacts on European plant species.Climate change is already impacting plant species distribution in Europe, and the situation is expected to worsen in the future. A study by Thuiller et al. projected the late 21st-century distributions of 1,350 European plant species under seven climate change scenarios. Using the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List criteria, the study found that over half of the species could become vulnerable or threatened by 2080. The projected species loss and turnover varied significantly across scenarios and regions, with mountain regions being particularly sensitive. The boreal region was expected to lose few species but gain many from immigration, while the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions showed the greatest changes. The study highlights the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change effects on plant diversity. Despite uncertainties, the findings underscore the potential importance and direction of climate change impacts on European plant species.