Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature

Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature

17 April 2024 | Paul Waidelich, Fulden Batibeniz, James Rising, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Sonia I. Seneviratne
This study examines the economic impacts of climate change beyond annual temperature changes, focusing on precipitation, temperature variability, and extreme events. By combining climate model projections with empirical dose-response functions, the authors find that at a global warming of +3 °C, global average losses reach 10% of GDP, with the worst effects (up to 17%) in poorer, low-latitude countries. The additional impacts of variability and extremes are smaller but significant, and they exacerbate economic tail risks. The study highlights the need for region-specific risk assessments and the integration of other climate variables to better understand climate change impacts. The results suggest that including variability and extremes in economic damage projections can increase global damage estimates by nearly two percentage points, emphasizing the importance of considering these factors for more accurate and comprehensive assessments.This study examines the economic impacts of climate change beyond annual temperature changes, focusing on precipitation, temperature variability, and extreme events. By combining climate model projections with empirical dose-response functions, the authors find that at a global warming of +3 °C, global average losses reach 10% of GDP, with the worst effects (up to 17%) in poorer, low-latitude countries. The additional impacts of variability and extremes are smaller but significant, and they exacerbate economic tail risks. The study highlights the need for region-specific risk assessments and the integration of other climate variables to better understand climate change impacts. The results suggest that including variability and extremes in economic damage projections can increase global damage estimates by nearly two percentage points, emphasizing the importance of considering these factors for more accurate and comprehensive assessments.
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