Climate migration amplifies demographic change and population aging

Climate migration amplifies demographic change and population aging

January 8, 2024 | Mathew E. Hauer, Sunshine A. Jacobs, Scott A. Kulp
The article "Climate Migration Amplifies Demographic Change and Population Aging" by Mathew E. Hauer, Sunshine A. Jacobs, and Scott A. Kulp explores the impact of climate migration on demographic changes and population aging in the United States. The authors argue that previous studies on climate migration often fail to account for demographic processes, leading to an underestimation of the true demographic impact. They use matrix population models, flood hazard models, and a migration model based on 40 years of environmental migration data to project the US population distribution at the county level, considering sea-level rise (SLR) and its potential to drive migration. Key findings include: - The demographic amplification effect of SLR ranges from 5.3 to 18 times the number of migrants (0.4 to 10 million) under various Representative Concentration Pathway-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP-SSP) scenarios by 2100. - Coastal areas are projected to experience significant aging as younger populations migrate, while older populations remain, leading to a median age increase of up to 10 years or more in some highly impacted coastal counties. - The demographic amplification effect is more pronounced than the simple displacement effect, highlighting the need for policies that address sustainable growth management, including access to affordable housing, aging services, and future public health needs. The authors emphasize the importance of integrating demographic processes into climate migration models to better understand and prepare for the complex demographic changes that will occur due to climate migration. They also suggest that destination communities should consider the demographic forces at play when planning for sustainability and managing growth.The article "Climate Migration Amplifies Demographic Change and Population Aging" by Mathew E. Hauer, Sunshine A. Jacobs, and Scott A. Kulp explores the impact of climate migration on demographic changes and population aging in the United States. The authors argue that previous studies on climate migration often fail to account for demographic processes, leading to an underestimation of the true demographic impact. They use matrix population models, flood hazard models, and a migration model based on 40 years of environmental migration data to project the US population distribution at the county level, considering sea-level rise (SLR) and its potential to drive migration. Key findings include: - The demographic amplification effect of SLR ranges from 5.3 to 18 times the number of migrants (0.4 to 10 million) under various Representative Concentration Pathway-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP-SSP) scenarios by 2100. - Coastal areas are projected to experience significant aging as younger populations migrate, while older populations remain, leading to a median age increase of up to 10 years or more in some highly impacted coastal counties. - The demographic amplification effect is more pronounced than the simple displacement effect, highlighting the need for policies that address sustainable growth management, including access to affordable housing, aging services, and future public health needs. The authors emphasize the importance of integrating demographic processes into climate migration models to better understand and prepare for the complex demographic changes that will occur due to climate migration. They also suggest that destination communities should consider the demographic forces at play when planning for sustainability and managing growth.
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[slides and audio] Climate migration amplifies demographic change and population aging