The study investigates the impact of river release projections on the Adriatic Sea's water cycle and climate, using a focused climate downscaling approach. The research spans from 1992 to 2050, considering the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Key findings include: 1. **River Release Projection**: The projected river release is expected to decrease by approximately 35% in the mid-term future, affecting the local density stratification and sea level rise. 2. **Stratification Impact**: The decrease in river runoff has a significant impact on the Northern sub-basin, where stratification is haline-dominated. The projected salinization prevails over heating throughout the water column. 3. **Southern Sub-basin**: In contrast, the runoff decrease has a lower impact on the Southern sub-basin, where other mechanisms, such as changing properties of Mediterranean water entering the Otranto Strait, may play a more significant role. 4. **Dense Water Formation**: The study provides evidence that the decreasing river discharge locally reduces density stratification, increases dense water formation, and mitigates sea level rise in the Northern Adriatic Sea, acting in the opposite direction to global warming. 5. **Methodology**: The study employs a limited area climate downscaling approach, integrating high-resolution hydrology and hydrodynamics models to accurately reproduce the link between surface buoyancy and stratification, and their resulting dynamics. The research highlights the importance of integrating high-resolution hydrology and hydrodynamics models in climate downscaling to better understand and predict the impacts of climate change on coastal ocean dynamics.The study investigates the impact of river release projections on the Adriatic Sea's water cycle and climate, using a focused climate downscaling approach. The research spans from 1992 to 2050, considering the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Key findings include: 1. **River Release Projection**: The projected river release is expected to decrease by approximately 35% in the mid-term future, affecting the local density stratification and sea level rise. 2. **Stratification Impact**: The decrease in river runoff has a significant impact on the Northern sub-basin, where stratification is haline-dominated. The projected salinization prevails over heating throughout the water column. 3. **Southern Sub-basin**: In contrast, the runoff decrease has a lower impact on the Southern sub-basin, where other mechanisms, such as changing properties of Mediterranean water entering the Otranto Strait, may play a more significant role. 4. **Dense Water Formation**: The study provides evidence that the decreasing river discharge locally reduces density stratification, increases dense water formation, and mitigates sea level rise in the Northern Adriatic Sea, acting in the opposite direction to global warming. 5. **Methodology**: The study employs a limited area climate downscaling approach, integrating high-resolution hydrology and hydrodynamics models to accurately reproduce the link between surface buoyancy and stratification, and their resulting dynamics. The research highlights the importance of integrating high-resolution hydrology and hydrodynamics models in climate downscaling to better understand and predict the impacts of climate change on coastal ocean dynamics.