December 13, 2006 | Oeindrila Dube, Juan F. Vargas
This paper examines the impact of commodity price shocks on civil conflict in Colombia, using a new dataset on civil war. The authors find that exogenous price shocks in the coffee and oil markets affect conflict in opposite directions and through separate channels. A sharp drop in coffee prices during the late 1990s increased violence disproportionately in coffee-intensive municipalities by lowering wages and the opportunity cost of recruitment into armed groups. Conversely, a rise in oil prices increased conflict in oil regions by expanding local government budgets and raising potential gains from rapacity and predation on these resources. The analysis suggests that labor-intensive goods affect conflict primarily through the opportunity cost effect, while capital-intensive goods affect conflict through the rapacity channel. The study contributes to the literature by providing a detailed analysis of the impact of economic shocks within a country, testing for the relative importance of opportunity cost and rapacity mechanisms, and ruling out alternative explanations such as the presence of coca.This paper examines the impact of commodity price shocks on civil conflict in Colombia, using a new dataset on civil war. The authors find that exogenous price shocks in the coffee and oil markets affect conflict in opposite directions and through separate channels. A sharp drop in coffee prices during the late 1990s increased violence disproportionately in coffee-intensive municipalities by lowering wages and the opportunity cost of recruitment into armed groups. Conversely, a rise in oil prices increased conflict in oil regions by expanding local government budgets and raising potential gains from rapacity and predation on these resources. The analysis suggests that labor-intensive goods affect conflict primarily through the opportunity cost effect, while capital-intensive goods affect conflict through the rapacity channel. The study contributes to the literature by providing a detailed analysis of the impact of economic shocks within a country, testing for the relative importance of opportunity cost and rapacity mechanisms, and ruling out alternative explanations such as the presence of coca.