July 1999 | Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Jonathan A. Parker
This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic model of household expenditure using synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) data to construct average age-profiles of consumption and income across different education and occupation groups. The model incorporates realistic labor income uncertainty and estimates structural parameters such as discount rates and risk aversion. The results show that consumption behavior changes significantly over the life cycle, with young consumers acting as buffer-stock agents and households accumulating liquid assets for retirement around age 40. The model decomposes saving into precautionary and retirement components and provides tight estimates of key utility function parameters. The paper finds substantial age-heterogeneity in consumption behavior driven by the interaction between retirement and precautionary motives. It also highlights the importance of income uncertainty in shaping consumption and asset accumulation behavior. The methodology uses a two-step Method of Simulated Moments approach to estimate the model and match simulated consumption profiles to empirical data. The results show that households behave like buffer-stock consumers early in their working lives and more like certainty-equivalent consumers as retirement nears. The paper contributes to the debate on the determinants of wealth accumulation and provides insights into the role of precautionary saving in household behavior. The findings suggest that a significant fraction of households are target savers, and the log-linearized form of the Euler equation may fail for these households. The paper also discusses the implications of income uncertainty for consumption and savings behavior, and highlights the importance of considering both precautionary and retirement motives in understanding household behavior. The results are robust and provide a comprehensive understanding of consumption and savings behavior across the life cycle.This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic model of household expenditure using synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) data to construct average age-profiles of consumption and income across different education and occupation groups. The model incorporates realistic labor income uncertainty and estimates structural parameters such as discount rates and risk aversion. The results show that consumption behavior changes significantly over the life cycle, with young consumers acting as buffer-stock agents and households accumulating liquid assets for retirement around age 40. The model decomposes saving into precautionary and retirement components and provides tight estimates of key utility function parameters. The paper finds substantial age-heterogeneity in consumption behavior driven by the interaction between retirement and precautionary motives. It also highlights the importance of income uncertainty in shaping consumption and asset accumulation behavior. The methodology uses a two-step Method of Simulated Moments approach to estimate the model and match simulated consumption profiles to empirical data. The results show that households behave like buffer-stock consumers early in their working lives and more like certainty-equivalent consumers as retirement nears. The paper contributes to the debate on the determinants of wealth accumulation and provides insights into the role of precautionary saving in household behavior. The findings suggest that a significant fraction of households are target savers, and the log-linearized form of the Euler equation may fail for these households. The paper also discusses the implications of income uncertainty for consumption and savings behavior, and highlights the importance of considering both precautionary and retirement motives in understanding household behavior. The results are robust and provide a comprehensive understanding of consumption and savings behavior across the life cycle.