(2024)7:51 | Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Marianna Adinolfi, Nikolina Ban, Danijel Belušić, Cécile Caillaud, João A. M. Careto, Erika Coppola, Marie-Estelle Demory, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Hendrik Feldmann, Klaus Goergen, Geert Lenderink, Emanuela Pichelli, Christoph Schär, Pedro M. M. Soares, Samuel Somot, Merja H. Töle
The study investigates the impact of convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) on the projection of extreme rainfall events in the greater Alpine region. CPMs, which explicitly resolve deep convective processes, are compared to regional climate models (RCMs) that parameterize convection. The research focuses on the uncertainties associated with climate change projections, particularly the contribution of model uncertainty and natural variability to the total uncertainty. The CPM ensemble shows a stronger increase in the fractional contribution from extreme events during summer, when convection dominates, compared to the RCM ensemble. The CPM ensemble significantly reduces model uncertainties by more than 50%, making it more reliable for policymakers to plan adaptation measures. The explicit representation of convection in CPMs leads to more realistic estimates of local dynamical processes, reducing the contribution of model uncertainty to the total uncertainty. This reduction is consistent across different model families and highlights the importance of CPMs in providing more certain projections of extreme rainfall events.The study investigates the impact of convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) on the projection of extreme rainfall events in the greater Alpine region. CPMs, which explicitly resolve deep convective processes, are compared to regional climate models (RCMs) that parameterize convection. The research focuses on the uncertainties associated with climate change projections, particularly the contribution of model uncertainty and natural variability to the total uncertainty. The CPM ensemble shows a stronger increase in the fractional contribution from extreme events during summer, when convection dominates, compared to the RCM ensemble. The CPM ensemble significantly reduces model uncertainties by more than 50%, making it more reliable for policymakers to plan adaptation measures. The explicit representation of convection in CPMs leads to more realistic estimates of local dynamical processes, reducing the contribution of model uncertainty to the total uncertainty. This reduction is consistent across different model families and highlights the importance of CPMs in providing more certain projections of extreme rainfall events.