26 Aug 2024 | Jérôme Martin, Christophe Ringeval, Vincent Vennin
The paper "Cosmic Inflation at the Crossroads" by Jérôme Martin, Christophe Ringeval, and Vincent Vennin assesses the capability of Cosmic Inflation to explain recent Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation data. The authors perform Bayesian model comparison among nearly 300 models of single-field slow-roll inflation, using third-order slow-roll primordial power spectra. They find that the fourth Hubble-flow function ε4 remains unbounded, while the third function ε3 is compatible with slow-roll predictions within the two-sigma level. The analysis also reveals some residual excess of B-modes within the BICEP/Keck data, suggesting a non-vanishing primordial tensor mode. The Bayesian evidence, Bayesian dimensionality, and marginalized posteriors of all models' parameters, including those related to the reheating era, are computed. The average information gain on the reheating parameter Rreh is 1.3 ± 0.18 bits, significantly improving over the first Planck data release. Over 40% of the models are strongly disfavored, indicating that cosmological data are increasingly constraining. About 20% of the models have evidence within the most probable region, favoring them according to the Jeffreys' scale of Bayesian evidences. The paper concludes by discussing the status of cosmic inflation and the need for further theoretical developments to address remaining challenges.The paper "Cosmic Inflation at the Crossroads" by Jérôme Martin, Christophe Ringeval, and Vincent Vennin assesses the capability of Cosmic Inflation to explain recent Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation data. The authors perform Bayesian model comparison among nearly 300 models of single-field slow-roll inflation, using third-order slow-roll primordial power spectra. They find that the fourth Hubble-flow function ε4 remains unbounded, while the third function ε3 is compatible with slow-roll predictions within the two-sigma level. The analysis also reveals some residual excess of B-modes within the BICEP/Keck data, suggesting a non-vanishing primordial tensor mode. The Bayesian evidence, Bayesian dimensionality, and marginalized posteriors of all models' parameters, including those related to the reheating era, are computed. The average information gain on the reheating parameter Rreh is 1.3 ± 0.18 bits, significantly improving over the first Planck data release. Over 40% of the models are strongly disfavored, indicating that cosmological data are increasingly constraining. About 20% of the models have evidence within the most probable region, favoring them according to the Jeffreys' scale of Bayesian evidences. The paper concludes by discussing the status of cosmic inflation and the need for further theoretical developments to address remaining challenges.