June 2024 | Davide Tonelli, Lorenzo Rosa, Paolo Gabrielli, Alessandro Parente & Francesco Contino
This study evaluates the cost-competitiveness of decentralized ammonia production for fertilizer use, highlighting its potential to enhance food security. Current centralized ammonia production is vulnerable to fossil fuel price fluctuations and complex supply chains, while decentralized production using small modular technologies, such as electric Haber–Bosch or electrocatalytic reduction, offers a more resilient alternative. The research compares the costs of decentralized ammonia production with historical centralized prices, finding that decentralized methods could be cost-competitive for up to 96% of global ammonia demand by 2030, especially in regions facing food insecurity.
Ammonia is a critical component of nitrogen fertilizers, supplying nutrients essential for global food production. Current ammonia production relies heavily on fossil fuels, contributing significantly to carbon emissions. Decentralized production could reduce transport costs and supply chain disruptions, making ammonia more accessible to remote areas. The study also explores the feasibility of producing ammonia using renewable energy sources, such as solar agrivoltaic systems, which integrate electricity generation with crop production.
The analysis considers various technologies for decentralized ammonia production, including electric Haber–Bosch and electrocatalytic reduction. While electrocatalytic reduction has lower technological readiness, it shows potential for cost-competitiveness by 2050. The study also addresses the challenges of scaling these technologies, including energy demands, land use, and infrastructure requirements.
The research highlights the importance of transitioning from centralized to decentralized production to meet future ammonia demand, which is projected to increase significantly by 2050. Decentralized production could reduce reliance on imports, enhance supply chain resilience, and support sustainable agriculture. The findings suggest that decentralized technologies, particularly in regions with limited infrastructure, could play a crucial role in achieving net-zero emissions and ensuring food security. The study provides a framework for evaluating the cost-competitiveness of decentralized ammonia production, emphasizing the need for targeted incentives and policy support to promote its adoption.This study evaluates the cost-competitiveness of decentralized ammonia production for fertilizer use, highlighting its potential to enhance food security. Current centralized ammonia production is vulnerable to fossil fuel price fluctuations and complex supply chains, while decentralized production using small modular technologies, such as electric Haber–Bosch or electrocatalytic reduction, offers a more resilient alternative. The research compares the costs of decentralized ammonia production with historical centralized prices, finding that decentralized methods could be cost-competitive for up to 96% of global ammonia demand by 2030, especially in regions facing food insecurity.
Ammonia is a critical component of nitrogen fertilizers, supplying nutrients essential for global food production. Current ammonia production relies heavily on fossil fuels, contributing significantly to carbon emissions. Decentralized production could reduce transport costs and supply chain disruptions, making ammonia more accessible to remote areas. The study also explores the feasibility of producing ammonia using renewable energy sources, such as solar agrivoltaic systems, which integrate electricity generation with crop production.
The analysis considers various technologies for decentralized ammonia production, including electric Haber–Bosch and electrocatalytic reduction. While electrocatalytic reduction has lower technological readiness, it shows potential for cost-competitiveness by 2050. The study also addresses the challenges of scaling these technologies, including energy demands, land use, and infrastructure requirements.
The research highlights the importance of transitioning from centralized to decentralized production to meet future ammonia demand, which is projected to increase significantly by 2050. Decentralized production could reduce reliance on imports, enhance supply chain resilience, and support sustainable agriculture. The findings suggest that decentralized technologies, particularly in regions with limited infrastructure, could play a crucial role in achieving net-zero emissions and ensuring food security. The study provides a framework for evaluating the cost-competitiveness of decentralized ammonia production, emphasizing the need for targeted incentives and policy support to promote its adoption.