The Amazon forest system faces increasing risk of critical transitions due to climate change, deforestation, and extreme droughts. Analysis of five major drivers of water stress, including global warming, annual rainfall, rainfall seasonality intensity, dry season length, and accumulated deforestation, suggests that by 2050, 10–47% of Amazonian forests may be exposed to compounding disturbances that could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and exacerbate regional climate change. The study identifies three plausible ecosystem trajectories: degraded forest, degraded open-canopy ecosystem, and white-sand savanna. These trajectories involve different feedbacks and environmental conditions, with the potential for irreversible changes. The Amazon forest is a complex system that supports biodiversity, carbon storage, and regional rainfall, and its collapse could have severe consequences for climate and human societies. The study emphasizes the need for both local and global actions to maintain the Amazon's resilience, including ending deforestation, restoring degraded areas, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Amazon's resilience is influenced by factors such as biodiversity, ecosystem adaptability, and connectivity, and its future depends on managing these factors to stay within safe operating boundaries. The study highlights the importance of understanding and managing the Amazon's complex interactions to prevent large-scale collapse.The Amazon forest system faces increasing risk of critical transitions due to climate change, deforestation, and extreme droughts. Analysis of five major drivers of water stress, including global warming, annual rainfall, rainfall seasonality intensity, dry season length, and accumulated deforestation, suggests that by 2050, 10–47% of Amazonian forests may be exposed to compounding disturbances that could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and exacerbate regional climate change. The study identifies three plausible ecosystem trajectories: degraded forest, degraded open-canopy ecosystem, and white-sand savanna. These trajectories involve different feedbacks and environmental conditions, with the potential for irreversible changes. The Amazon forest is a complex system that supports biodiversity, carbon storage, and regional rainfall, and its collapse could have severe consequences for climate and human societies. The study emphasizes the need for both local and global actions to maintain the Amazon's resilience, including ending deforestation, restoring degraded areas, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Amazon's resilience is influenced by factors such as biodiversity, ecosystem adaptability, and connectivity, and its future depends on managing these factors to stay within safe operating boundaries. The study highlights the importance of understanding and managing the Amazon's complex interactions to prevent large-scale collapse.