Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

14 February 2024 | Bernardo M. Flores, Encarni Montoya, Boris Sakschewski, Nathália Nascimento, Arie Staal, Richard A. Betts, Carolina Levis, David M. Lapola, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Catarina Jakovac, Carlos A. Nobre, Rafael S. Oliveira, Laura S. Borma, Da Nian, Niklas Boers, Susanna B. Hecht, Hans ter Steege, Julia Arieira, Isabella L. Lucas, Erika Berenguer, José A. Marengo, Luciana V. Gatti, Caio R. C. Mattos, Marina Hirota
The Amazon forest system is facing increasing stress from global warming, extreme droughts, deforestation, and fires, raising concerns about a potential tipping point leading to large-scale collapse. The region's resilience to climatic variability has been relatively stable for 65 million years, but current conditions are unprecedented. Feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are changing, increasing the risk of critical transitions. This paper analyzes five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests and their potential critical thresholds. By 2050, 10% to 47% of the Amazon forest may be exposed to compounding disturbances, potentially triggering unexpected ecosystem transitions and exacerbating regional climate change. The paper identifies three plausible ecosystem trajectories: degraded forest, white-sand savanna, and degraded open-canopy ecosystem. The complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty but also reveals opportunities for action. Maintaining forest resilience requires local efforts to end deforestation and degradation, expand restoration, and global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Amazon forest, home to diverse species and crucial for global biodiversity and climate stability, faces significant threats that must be addressed through a combination of local and global actions.The Amazon forest system is facing increasing stress from global warming, extreme droughts, deforestation, and fires, raising concerns about a potential tipping point leading to large-scale collapse. The region's resilience to climatic variability has been relatively stable for 65 million years, but current conditions are unprecedented. Feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are changing, increasing the risk of critical transitions. This paper analyzes five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests and their potential critical thresholds. By 2050, 10% to 47% of the Amazon forest may be exposed to compounding disturbances, potentially triggering unexpected ecosystem transitions and exacerbating regional climate change. The paper identifies three plausible ecosystem trajectories: degraded forest, white-sand savanna, and degraded open-canopy ecosystem. The complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty but also reveals opportunities for action. Maintaining forest resilience requires local efforts to end deforestation and degradation, expand restoration, and global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Amazon forest, home to diverse species and crucial for global biodiversity and climate stability, faces significant threats that must be addressed through a combination of local and global actions.
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