This study provides a data-based analysis, modeling, and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei, China, using publicly available epidemiological data from January 11 to February 10, 2020. The authors estimate key epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number ($R_0$), case fatality ratio ($\hat{\gamma}$), and case recovery ratio ($\hat{\beta}$), along with their 90% confidence intervals. They also forecast the evolution of the outbreak using a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model, both with the actual data and under scenarios where the number of infected and recovered cases is scaled up by 20 and 40 times, respectively. The results suggest that the estimated $R_0$ ranges from ~4.6 to ~3.2, and the average $R_0$ is estimated to be ~2.6 based on confirmed cases and ~2 based on the scaled scenarios. The forecasts indicate that the cumulative number of infected cases could reach 180,000 by February 29, with a lower bound of 45,000, and the death toll might exceed 2,700, with a lower bound of 1,300. The analysis highlights the significant decline in the case fatality ratio from January 26, possibly due to severe control measures and the underreporting of mild or asymptomatic cases. The study concludes that the outbreak in Hubei is expected to slow down by the end of February, with a case fatality rate of around ~0.15% in the total population.This study provides a data-based analysis, modeling, and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei, China, using publicly available epidemiological data from January 11 to February 10, 2020. The authors estimate key epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number ($R_0$), case fatality ratio ($\hat{\gamma}$), and case recovery ratio ($\hat{\beta}$), along with their 90% confidence intervals. They also forecast the evolution of the outbreak using a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model, both with the actual data and under scenarios where the number of infected and recovered cases is scaled up by 20 and 40 times, respectively. The results suggest that the estimated $R_0$ ranges from ~4.6 to ~3.2, and the average $R_0$ is estimated to be ~2.6 based on confirmed cases and ~2 based on the scaled scenarios. The forecasts indicate that the cumulative number of infected cases could reach 180,000 by February 29, with a lower bound of 45,000, and the death toll might exceed 2,700, with a lower bound of 1,300. The analysis highlights the significant decline in the case fatality ratio from January 26, possibly due to severe control measures and the underreporting of mild or asymptomatic cases. The study concludes that the outbreak in Hubei is expected to slow down by the end of February, with a case fatality rate of around ~0.15% in the total population.