DISTRIBUTIONAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: METHODS AND ESTIMATES FOR THE UNITED STATES

DISTRIBUTIONAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: METHODS AND ESTIMATES FOR THE UNITED STATES

May 2018 | THOMAS PIKETTY, EMMANUEL SAEZ, GABRIEL ZUCMAN
This article combines tax, survey, and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the United States since 1913. The authors develop distributional national accounts that capture 100% of national income, allowing for consistent growth rates across income quantiles. They estimate both pretax and posttax income distributions, providing a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality. Key findings include: 1. **Growth Disparities**: The average pretax income of the bottom 50% of adults has stagnated at about $16,000 per adult since 1980, while national income per adult has grown by 60% to $64,500 in 2014. The top 1%'s income has increased from $420,000 to about $1.3 million, with their income share rising from 12% to 20%. 2. **Government Redistributive Impact**: Government redistribution has only partially offset the increase in inequality. Post-tax transfers are largely targeted at the elderly and middle-class, with limited impact on the bottom 50%. 3. **Capital-Driven Income Growth**: The surge in top incomes has been driven by capital income, particularly equity and bond returns, rather than labor income as previously thought. 4. **Gender Inequality**: The reduction in the gender gap in earnings has mitigated inequality, but women still face significant barriers, especially at the top end of the income distribution. The article also discusses the methodology used to construct these distributional national accounts, including the integration of tax and survey data, and the assumptions made about tax incidence. The authors aim to provide a more accurate and comprehensive measure of income inequality in the United States, which can be used to compare inequality across countries.This article combines tax, survey, and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the United States since 1913. The authors develop distributional national accounts that capture 100% of national income, allowing for consistent growth rates across income quantiles. They estimate both pretax and posttax income distributions, providing a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality. Key findings include: 1. **Growth Disparities**: The average pretax income of the bottom 50% of adults has stagnated at about $16,000 per adult since 1980, while national income per adult has grown by 60% to $64,500 in 2014. The top 1%'s income has increased from $420,000 to about $1.3 million, with their income share rising from 12% to 20%. 2. **Government Redistributive Impact**: Government redistribution has only partially offset the increase in inequality. Post-tax transfers are largely targeted at the elderly and middle-class, with limited impact on the bottom 50%. 3. **Capital-Driven Income Growth**: The surge in top incomes has been driven by capital income, particularly equity and bond returns, rather than labor income as previously thought. 4. **Gender Inequality**: The reduction in the gender gap in earnings has mitigated inequality, but women still face significant barriers, especially at the top end of the income distribution. The article also discusses the methodology used to construct these distributional national accounts, including the integration of tax and survey data, and the assumptions made about tax incidence. The authors aim to provide a more accurate and comprehensive measure of income inequality in the United States, which can be used to compare inequality across countries.
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